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Emerging economies
22 emerging economies, including Romania, scored on 22 conditions (14 plus 8 that verify the evidence), with IMF and BIS data and each country’s stock market.
Questions the analysis answers
- Which emerging economies have the strongest macro fundamentals?
- Where is growth backed by sound public finances, and where by debt?
- How does Romania compare with Poland and the rest of the emerging markets?
The economies on the radar
22 emerging economies scored on 22 conditions: 14 (80% of the score) and 8 that verify the evidence (20%): IMF reviews and credit ratings, the quality of official statistics, agreement of sources, track record, outside confirmation (ratings, index inclusion), warning signs (sanctions, capital controls, defaults, EU deficit procedures), resilience in crises and independence from 22Radar. Of the first 14, six conditions are computed automatically from official data (IMF, BIS, each country’s stock market), using published formulas; the other eight are judgement, with a rationale for each country. The scores are frozen in the snapshot of 1 November 2026 (SHA-256 fingerprint in the .sha256 file); the earlier 14-condition snapshot stays published: emergente-2026-11-01.json. The input data update automatically every Friday.
| # | Country | Conditions | Verification | Score | Substance / form | Growth 2026 | Budget balance | Public debt | Stocks, 2 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chile | 17/22 | 8/8 | 6.42 | Substance being confirmed | +0.6% | -2.0% | 43% | -15.0% |
| 2 | South Korea | 15/22 | 8/8 | 6.67 | Substance being confirmed | +3.3% | -1.3% | 47% | -19.1% |
| 3 | Indonesia | 15/22 | 8/8 | 6.66 | Substance without form | +5.1% | -2.9% | 42% | -23.7% |
| 4 | Malaysia | 15/22 | 8/8 | 6.62 | Substance without form | +5.2% | -3.5% | 69% | -4.5% |
| 5 | Taiwan | 14/22 | 7/8 | 7.01 | Substance confirmed | +10.7% | +0.3% | 21% | -9.9% |
| 6 | India | 14/22 | 8/8 | 6.34 | Substance confirmed | +7.0% | -7.5% | 83% | -4.4% |
| 7 | United Arab Emirates | 14/22 | 6/8 | 5.96 | Substance being confirmed | -3.9% | +1.5% | 33% | -2.4% |
| 8 | Poland | 12/22 | 8/8 | 5.96 | Substance confirmed | +3.4% | -7.2% | 67% | -3.8% |
| 9 | Mexico | 11/22 | 7/8 | 5.84 | Substance being confirmed | +1.5% | -4.2% | 62% | -2.8% |
| 10 | Peru | 10/22 | 7/8 | 5.88 | Substance being confirmed | +3.0% | -1.5% | 29% | -13.0% |
| 11 | Philippines | 10/22 | 8/8 | 5.65 | Substance being confirmed | +3.4% | -4.2% | 61% | -7.9% |
| 12 | Vietnam | 9/22 | 2/8 | 6.60 | Substance without form | +8.4% | -0.8% | 28% | -8.3% |
| 13 | China | 9/22 | 3/8 | 5.63 | Substance being confirmed | +4.5% | -8.0% | 104% | -10.6% |
| 14 | Thailand | 9/22 | 7/8 | 5.33 | Substance being confirmed | +2.1% | -3.3% | 67% | -6.7% |
| 15 | Brazil | 8/22 | 5/8 | 5.65 | Substance without form | +2.2% | -8.1% | 97% | -14.3% |
| 16 | Saudi Arabia | 8/22 | 5/8 | 4.97 | Substance being confirmed | -3.3% | -6.5% | 35% | -11.1% |
| 17 | Romania | 7/22 | 5/8 | 4.78 | Form without substance | -0.5% | -6.2% | 63% | +2.3% |
| 18 | Colombia | 6/22 | 5/8 | 5.38 | Substance confirmed | +2.2% | -6.9% | 60% | -5.3% |
| 19 | South Africa | 6/22 | 4/8 | 5.29 | Substance being confirmed | +1.0% | -4.4% | 78% | -13.8% |
| 20 | Turkey | 5/22 | 2/8 | 4.79 | Substance being confirmed | +2.7% | -3.1% | 23% | -24.7% |
| 21 | Argentina | 3/22 | 1/8 | 4.46 | Substance being confirmed | +2.1% | +0.4% | 69% | -17.9% |
| 22 | Egypt | 2/22 | 1/8 | 4.59 | Substance being confirmed | +5.1% | -11.4% | 84% | — |
Each country, condition by condition
Open a country to see the score on each condition, the data behind the computed scores and the rationale for the judgement scores. Conditions without data get 5 (neutral) in the score and do not count as met.
Chile · 17/22 · verification 8/8 · score 6.42 · Substance being confirmed
The strongest institutions in Latin America and a key role in copper and lithium, but exports depend on these two metals.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 3 | The economy grows little or shrinks. Data: growth 0.6% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 8 | A nearly balanced budget. Data: budget balance -2% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 7 | Sustainable debt and little foreign dependence. Data: debt 42.8% of GDP, current account -0.3% |
| C4 | New sectors | 7 | Strong new sectors: technology, relocated factories, critical minerals. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 7 | Foreign investors build factories and long-term businesses. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 8 | Solid, predictable institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 5 | Inflation and interest rate roughly balanced. Data: rate 4.5% (2026-11-03) − inflation 4.1% = 0.4 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 4 | Exports concentrated in a few products. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 8 | A strategic position: resources or factories that are hard to replace. |
| C10 | Valuation | 10 | The stock market is cheap versus the past year. Data: the stock market at 4% of its 52-week range (ECH) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 0 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -15.0% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 7 | Low geopolitical risk. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Latin America’s strongest institutions, high-quality statistics and good ratings.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 8 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 9 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 9 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 8 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 8 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 8 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
South Korea · 15/22 · verification 8/8 · score 6.67 · Substance being confirmed
A world leader in memory chips and shipbuilding, with sophisticated exports. Rapid population ageing and tensions with North Korea are the risks.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 6 | Moderate growth. Data: growth 3.3% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 9 | A nearly balanced budget. Data: budget balance -1.3% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 7 | Sustainable debt and little foreign dependence. Data: debt 47.3% of GDP, current account 18.8% |
| C4 | New sectors | 8 | Strong new sectors: technology, relocated factories, critical minerals. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 7 | Foreign investors build factories and long-term businesses. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 7 | Solid, predictable institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 5 | Inflation and interest rate roughly balanced. Data: rate 3% (2026-10-08) − inflation 2.9% = 0.1 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 8 | Varied exports to many partners. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 6 | A regional role. |
| C10 | Valuation | 6 | The stock market is at a normal level. Data: the stock market at 37% of its 52-week range (EWY) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 0 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -19.1% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
High-quality statistics and solid ratings; the political crisis caused by martial law in December 2024 is a signal to watch.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 9 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 9 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 9 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 9 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 8 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 7 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 8 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Indonesia · 15/22 · verification 8/8 · score 6.66 · Substance without form
It dominates world nickel supply and is building local battery processing. Institutions and policy predictability remain average.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 8 | Strong economic growth. Data: growth 5.1% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 7 | A nearly balanced budget. Data: budget balance -2.9% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 7 | Sustainable debt and little foreign dependence. Data: debt 41.7% of GDP, current account -1.6% |
| C4 | New sectors | 8 | Strong new sectors: technology, relocated factories, critical minerals. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 6 | Mixed capital: factories and speculation. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 5 | Average institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 7 | Inflation under control and an interest rate above inflation. Data: rate 5.75% (2026-10-19) − inflation 3.3% = 2.5 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 5 | Partly diversified exports. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 8 | A strategic position: resources or factories that are hard to replace. |
| C10 | Valuation | 10 | The stock market is cheap versus the past year. Data: the stock market at 2% of its 52-week range (EIDO) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 0 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -23.7% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
IMF reviews and investment-grade ratings; fiscal discipline is being tested by the new government’s programmes.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 7 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 7 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 7 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 8 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 7 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 7 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 7 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Malaysia · 15/22 · verification 8/8 · score 6.62 · Substance without form
Benefits from supply chains moving out of China: data centres, chip packaging, electronics. High public debt and dependence on commodities are the weak points.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 8 | Strong economic growth. Data: growth 5.2% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 7 | A nearly balanced budget. Data: budget balance -3.5% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 5 | Moderate debt. Data: debt 69.2% of GDP, current account 2.1% |
| C4 | New sectors | 7 | Strong new sectors: technology, relocated factories, critical minerals. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 7 | Foreign investors build factories and long-term businesses. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 6 | Average institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 6 | Inflation and interest rate roughly balanced. Data: rate 2.75% (2026-11-03) − inflation 1.8% = 1.0 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 7 | Varied exports to many partners. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 7 | A strategic position: resources or factories that are hard to replace. |
| C10 | Valuation | 7 | The stock market is cheap versus the past year. Data: the stock market at 31% of its 52-week range (EWM) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 0 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -4.5% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
High-quality statistics, IMF reviews and investment-grade ratings.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 8 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 8 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 8 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 8 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 8 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 8 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Taiwan · 14/22 · verification 7/8 · score 7.01 · Substance confirmed · no data: C7
The world centre for advanced chip production, with huge investment linked to artificial intelligence. Concentration in semiconductors and tensions with mainland China are the major risks.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 10 | Strong economic growth. Data: growth 10.7% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 10 | A nearly balanced budget. Data: budget balance 0.3% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 9 | Sustainable debt and little foreign dependence. Data: debt 21.1% of GDP, current account 22% |
| C4 | New sectors | 9 | Strong new sectors: technology, relocated factories, critical minerals. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 8 | Foreign investors build factories and long-term businesses. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 8 | Solid, predictable institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 6 | Partly diversified exports. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 7 | A strategic position: resources or factories that are hard to replace. |
| C10 | Valuation | 5 | The stock market is at a normal level. Data: the stock market at 46% of its 52-week range (EWT) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 0 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -9.9% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 3 | International funds are already heavily exposed. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 4 | High geopolitical risk: conflicts, sanctions, sudden changes. |
Verification (C15–C22)
High-quality statistics and good ratings, but it is not an IMF member, so it has no IMF reviews; geopolitical risk is major.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 7 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 8 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 9 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 8 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 6 | A few signals to watch. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 8 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
India · 14/22 · verification 8/8 · score 6.34 · Substance confirmed
The fastest growth among large economies and a beneficiary of production moving out of China. Very high media attention and high stock-market valuations are signals for caution.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 10 | Strong economic growth. Data: growth 7% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 3 | The state spends far more than it collects: a large budget deficit. Data: budget balance -7.5% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 4 | High debt and dependence on foreign financing. Data: debt 83.1% of GDP, current account -1.5% |
| C4 | New sectors | 8 | Strong new sectors: technology, relocated factories, critical minerals. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 7 | Foreign investors build factories and long-term businesses. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 6 | Average institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 5 | Inflation and interest rate roughly balanced. Data: rate 5.5% (2026-10-19) − inflation 5.5% = -0.0 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 7 | Varied exports to many partners. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 7 | A strategic position: resources or factories that are hard to replace. |
| C10 | Valuation | 5 | The stock market is at a normal level. Data: the stock market at 49% of its 52-week range (INDA) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 4 | Press euphoria about this country. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 1 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -4.4% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 7 | Low geopolitical risk. |
Verification (C15–C22)
IMF reviews and investment-grade ratings; the methodology of some official statistics is disputed by some economists.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 7 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 7 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 7 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 8 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 7 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 7 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 8 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
United Arab Emirates · 14/22 · verification 6/8 · score 5.96 · Substance being confirmed · no data: C7
Real diversification away from oil towards finance, logistics, tourism and artificial intelligence, with strong inflows of capital and people. Dependence on the oil price and regional risks remain.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 0 | The economy grows little or shrinks. Data: growth -3.9% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 10 | A nearly balanced budget. Data: budget balance 1.5% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 8 | Sustainable debt and little foreign dependence. Data: debt 32.8% of GDP, current account 4.8% |
| C4 | New sectors | 8 | Strong new sectors: technology, relocated factories, critical minerals. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 8 | Foreign investors build factories and long-term businesses. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 7 | Solid, predictable institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 7 | Varied exports to many partners. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 8 | A strategic position: resources or factories that are hard to replace. |
| C10 | Valuation | 6 | The stock market is at a normal level. Data: the stock market at 44% of its 52-week range (UAE) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 3 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -2.4% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 7 | Low geopolitical risk. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Solid ratings, but less complete public statistics; the BIS does not yet publish a house price index.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 8 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 6 | Basic register data, few figures. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 6 | One independent source confirms part of the figures. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 7 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 8 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 7 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 8 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Poland · 12/22 · verification 8/8 · score 5.96 · Substance confirmed
A diversified economy integrated into European production chains, with steady foreign investment. The budget deficit and proximity to the war in Ukraine are the risks.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 6 | Moderate growth. Data: growth 3.4% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 3 | The state spends far more than it collects: a large budget deficit. Data: budget balance -7.2% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 5 | Moderate debt. Data: debt 66.6% of GDP, current account -1.9% |
| C4 | New sectors | 6 | A few new sectors developing. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 8 | Foreign investors build factories and long-term businesses. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 7 | Solid, predictable institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 5 | Inflation and interest rate roughly balanced. Data: rate 3.75% (2026-11-03) − inflation 4.0% = -0.2 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 8 | Varied exports to many partners. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 5 | A regional role. |
| C10 | Valuation | 2 | The stock market is expensive versus the past year. Data: the stock market at 83% of its 52-week range (EPOL) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 1 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -3.8% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Eurostat statistics, IMF reviews and solid ratings; the EU excessive-deficit procedure is a signal to watch.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 8 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 9 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 9 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 9 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 8 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 7 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 8 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Mexico · 11/22 · verification 7/8 · score 5.84 · Substance being confirmed
It gains directly from production moving to North America (nearshoring). The risks: US tariffs and the judicial reform, which weakens institutions.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 4 | The economy grows little or shrinks. Data: growth 1.5% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 6 | A moderate budget deficit. Data: budget balance -4.2% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 6 | Moderate debt. Data: debt 62.1% of GDP, current account -0.3% |
| C4 | New sectors | 8 | Strong new sectors: technology, relocated factories, critical minerals. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 7 | Foreign investors build factories and long-term businesses. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 4 | Weak institutions: unevenly applied law, unpredictable decisions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 8 | Inflation under control and an interest rate above inflation. Data: rate 6.5% (2026-11-03) − inflation 3.5% = 3.0 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 6 | Partly diversified exports. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 7 | A strategic position: resources or factories that are hard to replace. |
| C10 | Valuation | 4 | The stock market is expensive versus the past year. Data: the stock market at 64% of its 52-week range (EWW) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 2 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -2.8% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 4 | High geopolitical risk: conflicts, sanctions, sudden changes. |
Verification (C15–C22)
High-quality statistics and IMF reviews; ratings have been cut, and US tariffs are a major risk.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 7 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 9 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 8 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 7 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 6 | A few signals to watch. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 7 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Peru · 10/22 · verification 7/8 · score 5.88 · Substance being confirmed
A highly credible central bank and low public debt; copper and gold as the engine, but chronic political instability, with frequent changes of president.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 6 | Moderate growth. Data: growth 3% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 9 | A nearly balanced budget. Data: budget balance -1.5% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 8 | Sustainable debt and little foreign dependence. Data: debt 28.6% of GDP, current account 4% |
| C4 | New sectors | 5 | A few new sectors developing. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 6 | Mixed capital: factories and speculation. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 7 | Solid, predictable institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 5 | Inflation and interest rate roughly balanced. Data: rate 4.25% (2026-11-03) − inflation 4.5% = -0.3 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 4 | Exports concentrated in a few products. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 6 | A regional role. |
| C10 | Valuation | 4 | The stock market is expensive versus the past year. Data: the stock market at 59% of its 52-week range (EPU) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 0 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -13.0% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 3 | High geopolitical risk: conflicts, sanctions, sudden changes. |
Verification (C15–C22)
A highly credible central bank and investment-grade ratings; frequent changes of president are a warning sign.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 8 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 8 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 9 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 7 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 6 | A few signals to watch. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 7 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Philippines · 10/22 · verification 8/8 · score 5.65 · Substance being confirmed
A young population, domestic consumption and strong outsourced services (BPO); industry is less developed than in the region.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 6 | Moderate growth. Data: growth 3.4% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 6 | A moderate budget deficit. Data: budget balance -4.2% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 4 | High debt and dependence on foreign financing. Data: debt 60.5% of GDP, current account -4.8% |
| C4 | New sectors | 5 | A few new sectors developing. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 6 | Mixed capital: factories and speculation. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 5 | Average institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 3 | High inflation or an interest rate below inflation. Data: rate 5.5% (2026-10-30) − inflation 7.2% = -1.7 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 5 | Partly diversified exports. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 4 | A small role in global supply chains. |
| C10 | Valuation | 9 | The stock market is cheap versus the past year. Data: the stock market at 8% of its 52-week range (EPHE) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 0 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -7.9% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
High-quality statistics and investment-grade ratings.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 7 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 8 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 8 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 7 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 7 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 7 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Vietnam · 9/22 · verification 2/8 · score 6.60 · Substance without form · no data: C7
The main beneficiary of electronics factories moving out of China, with large foreign direct investment. The stock market is still classified as frontier, with limited access for foreigners.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 10 | Strong economic growth. Data: growth 8.4% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 9 | A nearly balanced budget. Data: budget balance -0.8% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 8 | Sustainable debt and little foreign dependence. Data: debt 28.3% of GDP, current account 0.3% |
| C4 | New sectors | 8 | Strong new sectors: technology, relocated factories, critical minerals. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 8 | Foreign investors build factories and long-term businesses. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 5 | Average institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 6 | Partly diversified exports. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 7 | A strategic position: resources or factories that are hard to replace. |
| C10 | Valuation | 9 | The stock market is cheap versus the past year. Data: the stock market at 15% of its 52-week range (VNM) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 0 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -8.3% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Less transparent statistics and ratings below investment grade, but steady growth even in crises.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 5 | An old or partial outside assessment. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 4 | Almost nothing in public registers. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 5 | One independent source confirms part of the figures. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 6 | A few years of record. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 5 | A few third parties confirm, without detail. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 6 | A few signals to watch. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 7 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
China · 9/22 · verification 3/8 · score 5.63 · Substance being confirmed
A leader in batteries, electric vehicles and critical-mineral processing, with very diversified exports. Foreign direct investment has fallen, and tensions with the US and the Taiwan risk keep geopolitical risk high.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 7 | Strong economic growth. Data: growth 4.5% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 2 | The state spends far more than it collects: a large budget deficit. Data: budget balance -8% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 3 | High debt and dependence on foreign financing. Data: debt 104.4% of GDP, current account 4% |
| C4 | New sectors | 8 | Strong new sectors: technology, relocated factories, critical minerals. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 5 | Mixed capital: factories and speculation. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 5 | Average institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 7 | Inflation under control and an interest rate above inflation. Data: rate 3% (2026-11-03) − inflation 0.9% = 2.1 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 9 | Varied exports to many partners. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 9 | A strategic position: resources or factories that are hard to replace. |
| C10 | Valuation | 8 | The stock market is cheap versus the past year. Data: the stock market at 18% of its 52-week range (MCHI) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 0 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -10.6% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 3 | High geopolitical risk: conflicts, sanctions, sudden changes. |
Verification (C15–C22)
IMF reviews exist, but the quality and transparency of statistics are disputed; capital controls and trade tensions with the US are warning signs.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 6 | An old or partial outside assessment. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 5 | Basic register data, few figures. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 5 | One independent source confirms part of the figures. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 8 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 6 | A few third parties confirm, without detail. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 5 | A few signals to watch. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 7 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Thailand · 9/22 · verification 7/8 · score 5.33 · Substance being confirmed
Strong car industry and tourism, but slow growth, high household debt and recurring political instability.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 5 | Moderate growth. Data: growth 2.1% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 7 | A nearly balanced budget. Data: budget balance -3.3% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 5 | Moderate debt. Data: debt 67.2% of GDP, current account -1.2% |
| C4 | New sectors | 4 | Few new sectors pulling the economy. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 6 | Mixed capital: factories and speculation. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 5 | Average institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 3 | High inflation or an interest rate below inflation. Data: rate 1% (2026-10-29) − inflation 2.8% = -1.8 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 7 | Varied exports to many partners. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 6 | A regional role. |
| C10 | Valuation | 4 | The stock market is expensive versus the past year. Data: the stock market at 55% of its 52-week range (THD) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 0 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -6.7% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 4 | High geopolitical risk: conflicts, sanctions, sudden changes. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Good statistics and investment-grade ratings; political instability is recurrent.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 7 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 8 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 8 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 7 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 6 | A few signals to watch. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 7 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Brazil · 8/22 · verification 5/8 · score 5.65 · Substance without form
An agricultural and commodity power with a credible central bank. The large budget deficit and dependence on commodities limit the score.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 5 | Moderate growth. Data: growth 2.2% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 2 | The state spends far more than it collects: a large budget deficit. Data: budget balance -8.1% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 3 | High debt and dependence on foreign financing. Data: debt 97% of GDP, current account -2.4% |
| C4 | New sectors | 5 | A few new sectors developing. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 6 | Mixed capital: factories and speculation. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 5 | Average institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 10 | Inflation under control and an interest rate above inflation. Data: rate 13.75% (2026-11-03) − inflation 4.6% = 9.2 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 5 | Partly diversified exports. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 7 | A strategic position: resources or factories that are hard to replace. |
| C10 | Valuation | 9 | The stock market is cheap versus the past year. Data: the stock market at 7% of its 52-week range (EWZ) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 0 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -14.3% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 5 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Good official statistics, but ratings below investment grade and a history of currency crises.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 7 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 8 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 7 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 6 | A few third parties confirm, without detail. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 6 | A few signals to watch. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 6 | It suffered but recovered, or has not yet been tested. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Saudi Arabia · 8/22 · verification 5/8 · score 4.97 · Substance being confirmed
A central role in the oil market and a large diversification programme (Vision 2030), but the economy still depends on oil, and the war in the region raises the risk.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 0 | The economy grows little or shrinks. Data: growth -3.3% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 4 | The state spends far more than it collects: a large budget deficit. Data: budget balance -6.5% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 6 | Moderate debt. Data: debt 35.4% of GDP, current account -3.5% |
| C4 | New sectors | 6 | A few new sectors developing. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 5 | Mixed capital: factories and speculation. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 5 | Average institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 8 | Inflation under control and an interest rate above inflation. Data: rate 4.5% (2026-10-29) − inflation 1.9% = 2.6 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 2 | Exports concentrated in a few products. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 9 | A strategic position: resources or factories that are hard to replace. |
| C10 | Valuation | 8 | The stock market is cheap versus the past year. Data: the stock market at 18% of its 52-week range (KSA) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 0 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -11.1% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 4 | High geopolitical risk: conflicts, sanctions, sudden changes. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Solid ratings, but less complete statistics and heavy dependence on the oil price.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 8 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 6 | Basic register data, few figures. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 6 | One independent source confirms part of the figures. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 7 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 7 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 6 | A few signals to watch. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 7 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Romania · 7/22 · verification 5/8 · score 4.78 · Form without substance
EU funds and investment in energy and IT, but large twin deficits (budget and current account), with a fiscal adjustment under way that slows growth.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 1 | The economy grows little or shrinks. Data: growth -0.5% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 4 | The state spends far more than it collects: a large budget deficit. Data: budget balance -6.2% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 3 | High debt and dependence on foreign financing. Data: debt 62.6% of GDP, current account -7% |
| C4 | New sectors | 5 | A few new sectors developing. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 6 | Mixed capital: factories and speculation. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 5 | Average institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 4 | High inflation or an interest rate below inflation. Data: rate 6.5% (2026-11-03) − inflation 6.6% = -0.1 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 6 | Partly diversified exports. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 4 | A small role in global supply chains. |
| C10 | Valuation | 1 | The stock market is expensive versus the past year. Data: the stock market at 86% of its 52-week range (TVBETETF.RO) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 7 | The stock market has risen recently. Data: the stock market +2.3% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 5 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Statistics reported to Eurostat and IMF reviews, but the EU’s largest budget deficit, an excessive-deficit procedure and ratings at the edge of investment grade, with a negative outlook.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 7 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 9 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 8 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 6 | A few third parties confirm, without detail. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 4 | Serious litigation, sanctions or signs of insolvency. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 6 | It suffered but recovered, or has not yet been tested. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Colombia · 6/22 · verification 5/8 · score 5.38 · Substance confirmed
A more diversified economy than it appears, but dependent on oil, with a widening budget deficit and political uncertainty around the 2026 elections.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 5 | Moderate growth. Data: growth 2.2% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 3 | The state spends far more than it collects: a large budget deficit. Data: budget balance -6.9% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 5 | Moderate debt. Data: debt 59.5% of GDP, current account -2.6% |
| C4 | New sectors | 5 | A few new sectors developing. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 5 | Mixed capital: factories and speculation. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 6 | Average institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 10 | Inflation under control and an interest rate above inflation. Data: rate 12.25% (2026-11-03) − inflation 6.3% = 6.0 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 4 | Exports concentrated in a few products. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 5 | A regional role. |
| C10 | Valuation | 3 | The stock market is expensive versus the past year. Data: the stock market at 70% of its 52-week range (COLO) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 0 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -5.3% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 4 | High geopolitical risk: conflicts, sanctions, sudden changes. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Good statistics, but ratings have fallen below investment grade, and the budget deficit is growing.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 7 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 8 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 8 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 6 | A few third parties confirm, without detail. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 5 | A few signals to watch. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 6 | It suffered but recovered, or has not yet been tested. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
South Africa · 6/22 · verification 4/8 · score 5.29 · Substance being confirmed
Solid financial institutions and platinum-group metal reserves, but weak growth and energy and infrastructure problems.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 3 | The economy grows little or shrinks. Data: growth 1% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 6 | A moderate budget deficit. Data: budget balance -4.4% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 5 | Moderate debt. Data: debt 78% of GDP, current account -0.7% |
| C4 | New sectors | 4 | Few new sectors pulling the economy. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 4 | Foreign capital is mostly speculative and can leave quickly. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 6 | Average institutions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 8 | Inflation under control and an interest rate above inflation. Data: rate 7.25% (2026-11-02) − inflation 4.5% = 2.7 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 4 | Exports concentrated in a few products. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 6 | A regional role. |
| C10 | Valuation | 7 | The stock market is cheap versus the past year. Data: the stock market at 29% of its 52-week range (EZA) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 0 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -13.8% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 5 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
High-quality statistics, but ratings below investment grade; it only left the FATF money-laundering grey list in 2024.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 6 | An old or partial outside assessment. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 9 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 8 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 6 | A few third parties confirm, without detail. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 5 | A few signals to watch. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 5 | It suffered but recovered, or has not yet been tested. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Turkey · 5/22 · verification 2/8 · score 4.79 · Substance being confirmed
A diversified industry and a strategic position between Europe and the Middle East, but inflation of nearly 30% and changing economic policies.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 5 | Moderate growth. Data: growth 2.7% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 7 | A nearly balanced budget. Data: budget balance -3.1% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 7 | Sustainable debt and little foreign dependence. Data: debt 22.5% of GDP, current account -2.9% |
| C4 | New sectors | 4 | Few new sectors pulling the economy. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 3 | Foreign capital is mostly speculative and can leave quickly. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 3 | Weak institutions: unevenly applied law, unpredictable decisions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 4 | High inflation or an interest rate below inflation. Data: rate 36% (2026-11-03) − inflation 29.7% = 6.3 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 6 | Partly diversified exports. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 6 | A regional role. |
| C10 | Valuation | 9 | The stock market is cheap versus the past year. Data: the stock market at 7% of its 52-week range (TUR) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 0 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -24.7% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 3 | High geopolitical risk: conflicts, sanctions, sudden changes. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Ratings well below investment grade, repeated currency crises and years of unorthodox monetary policy.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 5 | An old or partial outside assessment. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 7 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 5 | One independent source confirms part of the figures. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 4 | Too new, or no verifiable record. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 4 | Only its own claims about clients and partners. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 3 | Serious litigation, sanctions or signs of insolvency. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 3 | It fell in the last crisis and did not recover. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Argentina · 3/22 · verification 1/8 · score 4.46 · Substance being confirmed
Lithium and shale gas (Vaca Muerta) with large potential and recent reforms, but a long history of currency and debt crises.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 5 | Moderate growth. Data: growth 2.1% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 10 | A nearly balanced budget. Data: budget balance 0.4% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 5 | Moderate debt. Data: debt 69.3% of GDP, current account 0.6% |
| C4 | New sectors | 6 | A few new sectors developing. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 3 | Foreign capital is mostly speculative and can leave quickly. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 3 | Weak institutions: unevenly applied law, unpredictable decisions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | 0 | High inflation or an interest rate below inflation. Data: rate 29% (2025-06) − inflation 33.5% = -4.5 pp |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 4 | Exports concentrated in a few products. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 6 | A regional role. |
| C10 | Valuation | 10 | The stock market is cheap versus the past year. Data: the stock market at 0% of its 52-week range (ARGT) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 4 | Press euphoria about this country. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | 0 | The stock market has fallen recently. Data: the stock market -17.9% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 4 | High geopolitical risk: conflicts, sanctions, sudden changes. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Nine defaults in its history, repeated capital controls and very weak ratings; the 2024 reforms are still at an early stage.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 4 | No verification by a third party. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 5 | Basic register data, few figures. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 4 | The figures come mainly from its own press releases. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 2 | Too new, or no verifiable record. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 3 | Only its own claims about clients and partners. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 2 | Serious litigation, sanctions or signs of insolvency. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 2 | It fell in the last crisis and did not recover. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Egypt · 2/22 · verification 1/8 · score 4.59 · Substance being confirmed · no data: C7, C10, C12
A strategic position through the Suez Canal, but high debt, dependence on foreign financing and direct exposure to the region’s conflicts.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | 8 | Strong economic growth. Data: growth 5.1% in 2026 |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | 0 | The state spends far more than it collects: a large budget deficit. Data: budget balance -11.4% of GDP |
| C3 | Debt and financing | 3 | High debt and dependence on foreign financing. Data: debt 84% of GDP, current account -4.4% |
| C4 | New sectors | 3 | Few new sectors pulling the economy. |
| C5 | Long-term capital | 4 | Foreign capital is mostly speculative and can leave quickly. |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | 3 | Weak institutions: unevenly applied law, unpredictable decisions. |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C8 | Diversified exports | 4 | Exports concentrated in a few products. |
| C9 | Strategic position | 6 | A regional role. |
| C10 | Valuation | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Trend and volume | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Not yet assessed, or moderate exposure. |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | 3 | High geopolitical risk: conflicts, sanctions, sudden changes. |
Verification (C15–C22)
An IMF programme, repeated devaluations and ratings well below investment grade.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 5 | An old or partial outside assessment. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 5 | Basic register data, few figures. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 5 | One independent source confirms part of the figures. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 4 | Too new, or no verifiable record. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 4 | Only its own claims about clients and partners. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 3 | Serious litigation, sanctions or signs of insolvency. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 3 | It fell in the last crisis and did not recover. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Formulas for the computed conditions
- C1: Real GDP growth in 2026 (IMF): score = 2 + 1.2 × growth in %.
- C2: Budget balance in 2026 (IMF, % of GDP): score = 10 + the balance (a 3% deficit gives 7).
- C3: Public debt and current account (IMF 2026): score = 10 − debt/15 + 0.4 × the current-account deficit.
- C7: Real interest rate (BIS): score = 5 + the real rate − 0.3 × inflation above 5%.
- C10: The stock market’s position (country ETF or local index) in its 52-week range: close to the low = cheap = high score. An approximation until we add the price/earnings ratio.
- C12: The stock market’s two-month trend (from 4 September): score = 5 + the change in %.
The data behind the scores
What the data show
A paragraph computed automatically from the data above; it updates with them.
Chile meets the most conditions (17 of 22). The fastest growth estimated by the IMF for 2026: Taiwan (+10.7%), Vietnam (+8.4%), India (+7.0%). Twin deficits above 3% of GDP (budget and current account): Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Romania, Egypt. Romania ranks 17 of 22, with 7 conditions met: growth -0.5% in 2026, budget balance -6.2% of GDP, debt 62.6% of GDP, current account -7%.
Fast growth is not enough: an economy with large deficits depends on foreign investors and is vulnerable when they leave. That is why we score growth, public finances, institutions and geopolitical risk together. This is not investment advice.
How we apply the 14 conditions in this domain
The same algorithm as for crypto, companies and commodities: each condition gets a score from 0 to 10 and is met from 7. The weights are identical in every domain; only what we measure in practice changes.
| # | Condition | What we measure | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real growth | GDP and domestic demand growing, driven by consumption and investment. | 16% |
| C2 | Fiscal discipline | Budget deficit under control. | 6% |
| C3 | Debt and financing | Sustainable external debt, little of it short-term. | 6% |
| C4 | New sectors | Technology, nearshoring, critical minerals. | 8% |
| C5 | Long-term capital | Foreign direct investment, not just speculative capital. | 6% |
| C6 | Quality of institutions | Rule of law, predictability, low corruption. | 8% |
| C7 | Inflation and real rate | Falling inflation, positive real interest rate. | 8% |
| C8 | Diversified exports | Several industries and many trading partners. | 4% |
| C9 | Strategic position | Resources or a hard-to-replace role in global supply chains. | 6% |
| C10 | Valuation | Stock market and currency cheap versus history and peers. | 6% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | Balanced attention; euphoria marks the top. | 6% |
| C12 | Trend and volume | The market rises on healthy volume. | 6% |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | International funds still underweight. | 6% |
| C14 | Geopolitical risk | No conflicts, sanctions or sudden regime change. | 8% |
Questions about the reasoning
Do you disagree with a score, or want to know why an asset is where it is? Ask. We answer with the weekly update, with sources, by email and, if you agree, here on the page.
Answered questions
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Sources
- IMF, World Economic Outlook (DataMapper API) (retrieved on 2026-11-05)
- BIS, Central bank policy rates and Consumer prices (retrieved on 2026-11-05)
- Yahoo Finance (country ETFs, BET index) (retrieved on 2026-11-05)