Home / Macroeconomics / Commodities
Active analysis
Energy, metals and agricultural products: prices, demand and supply.
22 assets scored on the same 14 conditions: 0 with 10+ conditions met, 7 on watch (6–9) and 15 under 6. The scores are those of the frozen snapshot of 29 October 2026 (JSON file with a SHA-256 fingerprint). 10 have a weekly public price in our database.
| Asset | Category | Conditions | Score | Substance / form | Last price | Before the snapshot | Since the snapshot | Price source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US natural gas (Henry Hub) | Mature, below peak | 8/14 | 6.8 | Substance without form | 2.898 USD 2026-10-30 | -2.6% | from 2026-11-06 | Yahoo Finance · NG=F NYMEX futures |
| Gallium (metal) | Emerging | 7/14 | 5.92 | Substance being confirmed | No public price: no liquid exchange | |||
| Dysprosium (oxide) | Emerging | 7/14 | 5.82 | Substance being confirmed | No public price: no liquid exchange | |||
| GPU compute hours (H100 / B200) | Emerging | 6/14 | 7.24 | Substance without form | No public price: no liquid exchange | |||
| Corn | Mature, below peak | 6/14 | 6.5 | Substance without form | 447.8 USD 2026-10-30 | -12.5% | from 2026-11-06 | Yahoo Finance · ZC=F CBOT futures |
| Wheat (US, HRW) | Mature, below peak | 6/14 | 6.38 | Substance without form | 644.3 USD 2026-10-30 | -18.1% | from 2026-11-06 | Yahoo Finance · KE=F KC HRW futures |
| Germanium (ingot) | Emerging | 6/14 | 5.64 | Substance being confirmed | No public price: no liquid exchange | |||
| Rare earths: NdPr (oxide) | Emerging | 5/14 | 6.18 | Substance without form | 49.99 USD 2026-10-30 | -33.9% | from 2026-11-06 | Yahoo Finance · REMX rare-earth companies ETF (approximation) |
| Lithium (carbonate) | Mature, below peak | 5/14 | 5.86 | Substance being confirmed | 59.81 USD 2026-10-30 | -19.4% | from 2026-11-06 | Yahoo Finance · LIT lithium companies ETF (approximation) |
| Graphite (spherical) | Emerging | 5/14 | 5.34 | Substance being confirmed | No public price: no liquid exchange | |||
| Sugar | Mature, below peak | 4/14 | 6.02 | Substance without form | 19.36 USD 2026-10-30 | +7.1% | from 2026-11-06 | Yahoo Finance · SB=F ICE futures |
| Tungsten (APT) | Emerging | 4/14 | 5.82 | Substance being confirmed | No public price: no liquid exchange | |||
| Nickel | Mature, below peak | 3/14 | 5.4 | Substance being confirmed | No public price: no free public daily price | |||
| Cocoa | Mature, below peak | 3/14 | 5.2 | Substance confirmed | 5,453 USD 2026-10-30 | -10.3% | from 2026-11-06 | Yahoo Finance · CC=F ICE futures |
| Antimony | Emerging | 3/14 | 5.1 | Substance being confirmed | No public price: no liquid exchange | |||
| Palladium | Mature, below peak | 3/14 | 4.94 | Substance being confirmed | 17.78 USD 2026-10-30 | -29.8% | from 2026-11-06 | Yahoo Finance · PALL physical ETF |
| Cobalt | Mature, below peak | 2/14 | 5.4 | Substance being confirmed | No public price: no free public daily price | |||
| Water (California) | Emerging | 2/14 | 4.94 | Substance being confirmed | No public price: no liquid exchange | |||
| Iron ore | Mature, below peak | 2/14 | 4.88 | Substance being confirmed | No public price: no free public daily price | |||
| Carbon removal credits (CDR) | Emerging | 2/14 | 4.44 | Substance being confirmed | 35 USD 2026-10-30 | +0.3% | from 2026-11-06 | Yahoo Finance · KRBN regulated carbon ETF (approximation) |
| Oranges / orange juice | Mature, below peak | 2/14 | 4.36 | Substance being confirmed | 115.4 USD 2026-10-30 | -16.5% | from 2026-11-06 | Yahoo Finance · OJ=F ICE futures |
| Green hydrogen | Emerging | 1/14 | 3.54 | Form without substance | No public price: no liquid exchange | |||
Open an asset to see the score on each condition, explained in plain words, and what it means in short.
Cheap in the US while Europe pays $25.42 because of the Middle East war; new demand from LNG and data centres.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 8 | Real and growing demand: the commodity is consumed, not just traded. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 5 | Supply is only partly limited. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 6 | Inventories are at a normal level. |
| C4 | New uses | 8 | New uses from technology (AI, batteries, energy, defence) add demand. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 8 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 8 | Transparent price: liquid exchange and reliable data. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 5 | Demand and supply are roughly balanced. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 8 | Many buyers, across different industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 7 | Hard to replace: no cheap substitutes. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 8 | The price is close to production cost: more room up than down. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 4 | The price is falling with no sign of stopping. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 8 | Low geopolitical risk: spread-out production, stable rules. |
New S&P Global benchmarks (2026); price gap of over 600%.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 7 | Real and growing demand: the commodity is consumed, not just traded. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 8 | Producers or states limit supply: quotas, cuts, export controls. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 4 | Inventories are high, so there is no pressure on price. |
| C4 | New uses | 8 | New uses from technology (AI, batteries, energy, defence) add demand. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 8 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 3 | The price is hard to find or differs widely between markets. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 7 | A deficit is expected: more demand than supply. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 5 | Buyers from a few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 8 | Hard to replace: no cheap substitutes. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 4 | The price is far above production cost. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 6 | The price is flat. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few speculators positioned: room for new buyers. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 2 | Production is concentrated in a risky country or region. |
The largest China-vs-West price gap on the list (+1,900%): the market has split in two.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 7 | Real and growing demand: the commodity is consumed, not just traded. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 8 | Producers or states limit supply: quotas, cuts, export controls. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 4 | Inventories are high, so there is no pressure on price. |
| C4 | New uses | 7 | New uses from technology (AI, batteries, energy, defence) add demand. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 8 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 2 | The price is hard to find or differs widely between markets. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 7 | A deficit is expected: more demand than supply. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 5 | Buyers from a few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 9 | Hard to replace: no cheap substitutes. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 4 | The price is far above production cost. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 6 | The price is flat. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few speculators positioned: room for new buyers. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 2 | Production is concentrated in a risky country or region. |
The first AI commodity: priced on a daily index (Silicon Data). A depreciating asset: each new chip generation cheapens renting the old ones.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 10 | Real and growing demand: the commodity is consumed, not just traded. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 6 | Supply is only partly limited. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 5 | Inventories are at a normal level. |
| C4 | New uses | 10 | New uses from technology (AI, batteries, energy, defence) add demand. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 9 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 5 | The price is public, but the market is small. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 6 | Demand and supply are roughly balanced. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 6 | Buyers from a few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 8 | Hard to replace: no cheap substitutes. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 7 | The price is close to production cost: more room up than down. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 6 | The price is flat. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few speculators positioned: room for new buyers. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 6 | A few geopolitical risks to watch. |
Rising in 2026; demand also from ethanol.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 7 | Real and growing demand: the commodity is consumed, not just traded. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 5 | Supply is only partly limited. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 6 | Inventories are at a normal level. |
| C4 | New uses | 5 | A few new uses, still small. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 8 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 8 | Transparent price: liquid exchange and reliable data. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 6 | Demand and supply are roughly balanced. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 8 | Many buyers, across different industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 8 | Hard to replace: no cheap substitutes. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 7 | The price is close to production cost: more room up than down. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 6 | The price is flat. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 6 | A few geopolitical risks to watch. |
+43% vs the 2025 average: the war disrupted grain shipments; El Niño threatens harvests.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 7 | Real and growing demand: the commodity is consumed, not just traded. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 5 | Supply is only partly limited. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 6 | Inventories are at a normal level. |
| C4 | New uses | 3 | No important new uses are appearing. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 9 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 8 | Transparent price: liquid exchange and reliable data. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 6 | Demand and supply are roughly balanced. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 8 | Many buyers, across different industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 9 | Hard to replace: no cheap substitutes. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 7 | The price is close to production cost: more room up than down. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 6 | The price is flat. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 5 | A few geopolitical risks to watch. |
Price gap of almost 400%.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 6 | Consumption is stable, with no clear growth. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 8 | Producers or states limit supply: quotas, cuts, export controls. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 4 | Inventories are high, so there is no pressure on price. |
| C4 | New uses | 7 | New uses from technology (AI, batteries, energy, defence) add demand. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 8 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 3 | The price is hard to find or differs widely between markets. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 7 | A deficit is expected: more demand than supply. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 4 | Few buyers, from few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 8 | Hard to replace: no cheap substitutes. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 4 | The price is far above production cost. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 6 | The price is flat. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few speculators positioned: room for new buyers. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 2 | Production is concentrated in a risky country or region. |
Price fell below the $110/kg floor guaranteed by the Pentagon; China controls ~90% of processing.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 8 | Real and growing demand: the commodity is consumed, not just traded. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 7 | Producers or states limit supply: quotas, cuts, export controls. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 5 | Inventories are at a normal level. |
| C4 | New uses | 8 | New uses from technology (AI, batteries, energy, defence) add demand. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 8 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 4 | The price is hard to find or differs widely between markets. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 6 | Demand and supply are roughly balanced. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 6 | Buyers from a few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 8 | Hard to replace: no cheap substitutes. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 6 | The price is moderately above cost. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 5 | The price is flat. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 2 | Production is concentrated in a risky country or region. |
Halved from the May 2026 peak (>200,000 CNY/t): mines restarted, surplus expected in 2027.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 8 | Real and growing demand: the commodity is consumed, not just traded. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 4 | Producers produce a lot and do not limit supply. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 5 | Inventories are at a normal level. |
| C4 | New uses | 9 | New uses from technology (AI, batteries, energy, defence) add demand. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 7 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 5 | The price is public, but the market is small. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 3 | A surplus is expected: more supply than demand. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 6 | Buyers from a few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 7 | Hard to replace: no cheap substitutes. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 7 | The price is close to production cost: more room up than down. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 2 | The price is falling with no sign of stopping. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 5 | A few geopolitical risks to watch. |
Ample supply, falling price (-13.2% in a month); US-China trade barriers.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 7 | Real and growing demand: the commodity is consumed, not just traded. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 4 | Producers produce a lot and do not limit supply. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 4 | Inventories are high, so there is no pressure on price. |
| C4 | New uses | 7 | New uses from technology (AI, batteries, energy, defence) add demand. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 8 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 4 | The price is hard to find or differs widely between markets. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 4 | A surplus is expected: more supply than demand. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 5 | Buyers from a few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 6 | Can be partly replaced. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 7 | The price is close to production cost: more room up than down. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 4 | Press euphoria: a historical top signal. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 3 | The price is falling with no sign of stopping. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few speculators positioned: room for new buyers. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 3 | Production is concentrated in a risky country or region. |
Slight recovery in 2026 from the 2025 low.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 6 | Consumption is stable, with no clear growth. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 5 | Supply is only partly limited. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 6 | Inventories are at a normal level. |
| C4 | New uses | 4 | No important new uses are appearing. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 8 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 8 | Transparent price: liquid exchange and reliable data. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 5 | Demand and supply are roughly balanced. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 7 | Many buyers, across different industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 6 | Can be partly replaced. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 7 | The price is close to production cost: more room up than down. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 5 | The price is flat. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 6 | A few geopolitical risks to watch. |
Top critical-mineral gainer in 2026, but -24.6% in one month in China.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 6 | Consumption is stable, with no clear growth. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 8 | Producers or states limit supply: quotas, cuts, export controls. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 4 | Inventories are high, so there is no pressure on price. |
| C4 | New uses | 6 | A few new uses, still small. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 8 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 4 | The price is hard to find or differs widely between markets. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 7 | A deficit is expected: more demand than supply. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 5 | Buyers from a few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 8 | Hard to replace: no cheap substitutes. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 5 | The price is moderately above cost. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 6 | The price is flat. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 3 | Production is concentrated in a risky country or region. |
Indonesia dominates supply and tightened controls; price rose 6.7% in August.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 6 | Consumption is stable, with no clear growth. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 5 | Supply is only partly limited. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 4 | Inventories are high, so there is no pressure on price. |
| C4 | New uses | 7 | New uses from technology (AI, batteries, energy, defence) add demand. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 7 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 6 | The price is public, but the market is small. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 3 | A surplus is expected: more supply than demand. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 5 | Buyers from a few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 5 | Can be partly replaced. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 7 | The price is close to production cost: more room up than down. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 5 | The price is flat. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 4 | Production is concentrated in a risky country or region. |
West African supply is recovering after the 2024 crisis; demand fell at high prices.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 6 | Consumption is stable, with no clear growth. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 3 | Producers produce a lot and do not limit supply. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 5 | Inventories are at a normal level. |
| C4 | New uses | 3 | No important new uses are appearing. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 8 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 7 | Transparent price: liquid exchange and reliable data. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 5 | Demand and supply are roughly balanced. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 5 | Buyers from a few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 7 | Hard to replace: no cheap substitutes. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 5 | The price is moderately above cost. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 4 | Press euphoria: a historical top signal. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 4 | The price is falling with no sign of stopping. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 4 | Production is concentrated in a risky country or region. |
-31.5% in a month in China, while Western prices fell much less.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 6 | Consumption is stable, with no clear growth. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 7 | Producers or states limit supply: quotas, cuts, export controls. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 4 | Inventories are high, so there is no pressure on price. |
| C4 | New uses | 5 | A few new uses, still small. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 8 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 3 | The price is hard to find or differs widely between markets. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 6 | Demand and supply are roughly balanced. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 4 | Few buyers, from few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 7 | Hard to replace: no cheap substitutes. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 5 | The price is moderately above cost. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 3 | The price is falling with no sign of stopping. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 2 | Production is concentrated in a risky country or region. |
Falling demand from car catalysts as EVs grow; Russia supplies ~40%.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 4 | Real consumption is weak or falling. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 6 | Supply is only partly limited. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 6 | Inventories are at a normal level. |
| C4 | New uses | 3 | No important new uses are appearing. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 7 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 7 | Transparent price: liquid exchange and reliable data. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 5 | Demand and supply are roughly balanced. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 4 | Few buyers, from few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 4 | Has cheap substitutes. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 6 | The price is moderately above cost. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 4 | The price is falling with no sign of stopping. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few speculators positioned: room for new buyers. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 3 | Production is concentrated in a risky country or region. |
DR Congo caps exports at ~96,600 t/year in 2026-2027, about half of 2024 output.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 6 | Consumption is stable, with no clear growth. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 8 | Producers or states limit supply: quotas, cuts, export controls. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 5 | Inventories are at a normal level. |
| C4 | New uses | 6 | A few new uses, still small. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 6 | Mixed demand: physical and speculative. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 4 | The price is hard to find or differs widely between markets. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 6 | Demand and supply are roughly balanced. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 4 | Few buyers, from few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 5 | Can be partly replaced. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 6 | The price is moderately above cost. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 4 | The price is falling with no sign of stopping. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few speculators positioned: room for new buyers. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 3 | Production is concentrated in a risky country or region. |
Technically launched but barely adopted; politically sensitive.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 4 | Real consumption is weak or falling. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 4 | Producers produce a lot and do not limit supply. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 4 | Inventories are high, so there is no pressure on price. |
| C4 | New uses | 3 | No important new uses are appearing. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 6 | Mixed demand: physical and speculative. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 5 | The price is public, but the market is small. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 5 | Demand and supply are roughly balanced. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 3 | Few buyers, from few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 10 | Hard to replace: no cheap substitutes. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 5 | The price is moderately above cost. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 4 | The price is falling with no sign of stopping. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 9 | Few speculators positioned: room for new buyers. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 4 | Production is concentrated in a risky country or region. |
China's steel output is weakening; new supply from Simandou (Guinea).
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 4 | Real consumption is weak or falling. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 5 | Supply is only partly limited. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 5 | Inventories are at a normal level. |
| C4 | New uses | 2 | No important new uses are appearing. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 8 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 7 | Transparent price: liquid exchange and reliable data. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 4 | A surplus is expected: more supply than demand. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 4 | Few buyers, from few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 6 | Can be partly replaced. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 5 | The price is moderately above cost. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 4 | The price is falling with no sign of stopping. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 5 | A few geopolitical risks to watch. |
Concentrated buyers (a few tech companies); credit quality is hard to verify.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 4 | Real consumption is weak or falling. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 5 | Supply is only partly limited. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 3 | Inventories are high, so there is no pressure on price. |
| C4 | New uses | 7 | New uses from technology (AI, batteries, energy, defence) add demand. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 4 | The price is moved mainly by funds placing bets. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 2 | The price is hard to find or differs widely between markets. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 5 | Demand and supply are roughly balanced. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 2 | Few buyers, from few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 5 | Can be partly replaced. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 3 | The price is far above production cost. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 5 | The price is flat. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 8 | Few speculators positioned: room for new buyers. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 4 | Production is concentrated in a risky country or region. |
Juice demand has been falling for years; citrus greening disease hits orchards.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 4 | Real consumption is weak or falling. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 4 | Producers produce a lot and do not limit supply. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 5 | Inventories are at a normal level. |
| C4 | New uses | 2 | No important new uses are appearing. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 7 | Bought mostly by those who use it, not only by those betting on it. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 6 | The price is public, but the market is small. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 5 | Demand and supply are roughly balanced. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 3 | Few buyers, from few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 3 | Has cheap substitutes. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 5 | The price is moderately above cost. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 3 | Press euphoria: a historical top signal. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 2 | The price is falling with no sign of stopping. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few speculators positioned: room for new buyers. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 5 | A few geopolitical risks to watch. |
Many projects delayed or cancelled; cost remains far above gas-based hydrogen.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 2 | Real consumption is weak or falling. |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 3 | Producers produce a lot and do not limit supply. |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | 3 | Inventories are high, so there is no pressure on price. |
| C4 | New uses | 6 | A few new uses, still small. |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | 3 | The price is moved mainly by funds placing bets. |
| C6 | Price transparency | 3 | The price is hard to find or differs widely between markets. |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | 4 | A surplus is expected: more supply than demand. |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | 3 | Few buyers, from few industries. |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | 4 | Has cheap substitutes. |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | 2 | The price is far above production cost. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 3 | Press euphoria: a historical top signal. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 3 | The price is falling with no sign of stopping. |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 8 | Few speculators positioned: room for new buyers. |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | 4 | Production is concentrated in a risky country or region. |
Every Friday, an automated GitHub routine downloads the closes from public sources and adds them here. Points older than a week are no longer changed, and every update stays in the project’s public history. Last update: 5 November 2026.
Read with care: the scores were given on 29 October 2026, after this period. The chart shows the context in which the scores were given, not the radar’s performance. Real performance is measured only from the snapshot onwards (next section).
Computed automatically: in the two months before the snapshot, 2 of 10 assets with a public price rose. The median change was -14.5%, against +5.4% for Commodities (DBC ETF). The largest rise: Sugar (+7.1%); the largest fall: Rare earths: NdPr (oxide) (-33.9%).
The first measurement runs automatically on Friday, 6 November 2026, against the close of 30 October 2026. From then on, the table above and this paragraph update weekly, with all assets, including those that fell.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Prices before fees and taxes. This is not investment advice.
The same algorithm as for crypto, companies and commodities: each condition gets a score from 0 to 10 and is met from 7. The weights are identical in every domain; only what we measure in practice changes.
| # | Condition | What we measure | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | Real, growing physical consumption, not just a story. | 16% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | Producers or states limit supply (quotas, cuts, export controls). | 6% |
| C3 | Inventories and market structure | Low and falling inventories = high score. | 6% |
| C4 | New uses | New demand from technology: AI, batteries, energy, defence. | 8% |
| C5 | Physical vs. speculative demand | Bought by those who use it, not only by funds betting on it. | 6% |
| C6 | Price transparency | Public price, liquid exchange, reliable data. | 8% |
| C7 | Supply-demand balance | Expected deficit = high score; surplus = low score. | 8% |
| C8 | Buyer diversity | Many buyers across different industries. | 4% |
| C9 | Irreplaceable | No cheap substitutes. | 6% |
| C10 | Price vs. production cost | Price close to production cost = room to rise. | 6% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | Balanced attention; media euphoria signals a top. | 6% |
| C12 | Price and volume | Steady price with growing demand = good sign. | 6% |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | Few speculators positioned = high score. | 6% |
| C14 | Geopolitical / regulatory risk | Production concentrated in one country = low score. | 8% |
In September 2026 Brent crude reached USD 116.8 a barrel, 69% above its 2025 average. European gas rose to USD 25.42/mmbtu, more than double its 2025 average, while US gas (2.95) is even below last year’s average. The gap between the two markets widened from about 3.4 times in 2025 to 8.6 times.
Based on: Brent crude oil; Natural gas: US (Henry Hub) vs. Europe
Compared with the 2025 average, copper is up 45% (USD 14,474 a tonne), silver 62%, platinum 40% and gold 26%. Gold now costs more than twice its 2023 price. Nickel (+8%) and iron ore (slightly down) lag behind: their supply is abundant.
Based on: Industrial metals: copper, nickel, aluminium; Precious metals: gold and platinum; Silver; Iron ore
US wheat is 43% above its 2025 average and corn 18%. In the other direction, cocoa has fallen 24% after the peak of the 2024 crisis, and oranges are at about a third of their 2024 average. Agricultural commodities can move sharply in both directions within a few months.
Based on: Grains: wheat (US, HRW) and corn; Cocoa, Arabica coffee, sugar and oranges
Do you disagree with a score, or want to know why an asset is where it is? Ask. We answer with the weekly update, with sources, by email and, if you agree, here on the page.
Loading…