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Active analysis

Start-ups in the United States

Silicon Valley, New York and the rest of the American ecosystem.

Questions the analysis answers

Which American companies are on the radar, and how have the listed ones performed?

The assets on the radar in this domain

33 assets scored on the same 14 conditions: 5 with 10+ conditions met, 13 on watch (6–9) and 15 under 6. The scores are those of the frozen snapshot of 29 October 2026 (JSON file with a SHA-256 fingerprint). 8 have a weekly public price in our database.

Asset	Category	Conditions	Score	Substance / form	Last price	Before the snapshot	Since the snapshot	Price source
Stripe	Pre-IPO USA	12/14	8.26	Substance without form	No public price: not listed (private market)
Databricks	Pre-IPO USA	11/14	7.7	Substance confirmed	No public price: not listed (private market)
Ramp	Pre-IPO USA	10/14	7.28	Substance confirmed	No public price: not listed (private market)
Anduril	Pre-IPO USA	10/14	7.26	Substance confirmed	No public price: not listed (private market)
Figma (FIG)	Recently listed USA	10/14	6.74	Substance without form	21.65 USD 2026-10-30	-10.2%	from 2026-11-06	Yahoo Finance · FIG
Sierra	Start-up with product USA	9/14	6.8	Substance confirmed	No public price: not listed
Plaid	Pre-IPO USA	8/14	6.64	Substance without form	No public price: not listed (private market)
SpaceX (SPCX)	Recently listed USA	8/14	6.46	Substance confirmed	134.7 USD 2026-10-30	-8.9%	from 2026-11-06	Yahoo Finance · SPCX
Periodic Labs	Pre-product start-up USA	8/14	5.64	Substance being confirmed	No public price: not listed
Cognition	Start-up with product USA	7/14	6.68	Substance confirmed	No public price: not listed
Replit	Start-up with product USA	7/14	6.56	Substance confirmed	No public price: not listed
Circle (CRCL)	Recently listed USA	6/14	6.48	Substance confirmed	72.54 USD 2026-10-30	-28.9%	from 2026-11-06	Yahoo Finance · CRCL
Harvey	Start-up with product USA	6/14	6.4	Substance confirmed	No public price: not listed
OpenAI	Pre-IPO USA	6/14	6.38	Substance confirmed	No public price: not listed (private market)
Glean	Start-up with product USA	6/14	6.36	Substance without form	No public price: not listed
Physical Intelligence	Pre-product start-up USA	6/14	5.6	Form without substance	No public price: not listed
Unconventional AI	Pre-product start-up USA	6/14	5.22	Substance being confirmed	No public price: not listed
Project Prometheus	Pre-product start-up USA	6/14	5.12	Form without substance	No public price: not listed
Mercor	Start-up with product USA	5/14	6.72	Substance confirmed	No public price: not listed
Kraken (Payward)	Pre-IPO USA	5/14	6.26	Substance without form	No public price: not listed (private market)
Chime (CHYM)	Recently listed USA	5/14	6.06	Substance being confirmed	27.95 USD 2026-10-30	-17.2%	from 2026-11-06	Yahoo Finance · CHYM
Perplexity	Start-up with product USA	5/14	5.8	Substance confirmed	No public price: not listed
Safe Superintelligence (SSI)	Pre-product start-up USA	5/14	5.36	Form without substance	No public price: not listed
Cerebras (CBRS)	Recently listed USA	4/14	5.66	Substance being confirmed	109.2 USD 2026-10-30	-48.0%	from 2026-11-06	Yahoo Finance · CBRS
Thinking Machines Lab	Pre-product start-up USA	4/14	5.12	Form without substance	No public price: not listed
Merge Labs	Pre-product start-up USA	4/14	4.86	Substance being confirmed	No public price: not listed
Discord	Pre-IPO USA	3/14	6.16	Substance without form	No public price: not listed (private market)
Figure AI	Start-up with product USA	3/14	4.88	Form without substance	No public price: not listed
CoreWeave (CRWV)	Recently listed USA	2/14	5.54	Substance being confirmed	54.87 USD 2026-10-30	-38.6%	from 2026-11-06	Yahoo Finance · CRWV
Reflection AI	Pre-product start-up USA	2/14	5.24	Form without substance	No public price: not listed
Humans&	Pre-product start-up USA	2/14	4.82	Form without substance	No public price: not listed
StubHub (STUB)	Recently listed USA	1/14	4.16	Substance being confirmed	5.78 USD 2026-10-30	-12.4%	from 2026-11-06	Yahoo Finance · STUB
Gemini (GEMI)	Recently listed USA	1/14	3.88	Substance being confirmed	2.87 USD 2026-10-30	-38.7%	from 2026-11-06	Yahoo Finance · GEMI

Each asset, condition by condition

Open an asset to see the score on each condition, explained in plain words, and what it means in short.

Stripe · Pre-IPO · 12/14 · Substance without form

From $50B (2023) to $159B without listing.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	9	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	10	Did not rush: launched (or delays launching) from strength, not out of need for money.
C3	Healthy funding	9	Healthy funding: no investors able to flood the market.
C4	Attracts skilled people	9	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	9	Customers come naturally and pay, not only for rewards.
C6	Credible team	9	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	7	Well-distributed supply: few new shares or tokens ready to flood the market.
C8	Organic community	8	Organic community: people came for the product.
C9	Obvious problem	9	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	6	Fair price, with no clear discount.
C11	Balanced media	8	Balanced attention: neither ignored nor in euphoria.
C12	Healthy price and volume	8	Healthy price behaviour: stable or rising, backed by volume.
C13	Few on the same bet	4	Too many have already bet on it: little room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	9	Low risks: no lawsuits, scandals or major geopolitical exposure.

Databricks · Pre-IPO · 11/14 · Substance confirmed

Delays listing from strength — the deliberate-delay pattern.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	9	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	9	Did not rush: launched (or delays launching) from strength, not out of need for money.
C3	Healthy funding	7	Healthy funding: no investors able to flood the market.
C4	Attracts skilled people	9	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	9	Customers come naturally and pay, not only for rewards.
C6	Credible team	9	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	6	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	7	Organic community: people came for the product.
C9	Obvious problem	8	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	5	Fair price, with no clear discount.
C11	Balanced media	7	Balanced attention: neither ignored nor in euphoria.
C12	Healthy price and volume	8	Healthy price behaviour: stable or rising, backed by volume.
C13	Few on the same bet	4	Too many have already bet on it: little room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	8	Low risks: no lawsuits, scandals or major geopolitical exposure.

Ramp · Pre-IPO · 10/14 · Substance confirmed

Valuation $32B → $44B in 2026.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	8	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	8	Did not rush: launched (or delays launching) from strength, not out of need for money.
C3	Healthy funding	8	Healthy funding: no investors able to flood the market.
C4	Attracts skilled people	8	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	8	Customers come naturally and pay, not only for rewards.
C6	Credible team	8	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	6	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	6	A real community, mixed with speculators.
C9	Obvious problem	7	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	4	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	7	Balanced attention: neither ignored nor in euphoria.
C12	Healthy price and volume	9	Healthy price behaviour: stable or rising, backed by volume.
C13	Few on the same bet	5	Some investors are positioned, but it is not crowded.
C14	Low risks	8	Low risks: no lawsuits, scandals or major geopolitical exposure.

Anduril · Pre-IPO · 10/14 · Substance confirmed

Real government contracts; valuation doubled in 2026.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	8	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	9	Did not rush: launched (or delays launching) from strength, not out of need for money.
C3	Healthy funding	7	Healthy funding: no investors able to flood the market.
C4	Attracts skilled people	9	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	8	Customers come naturally and pay, not only for rewards.
C6	Credible team	8	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	6	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	7	Organic community: people came for the product.
C9	Obvious problem	8	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	4	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	6	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	9	Healthy price behaviour: stable or rising, backed by volume.
C13	Few on the same bet	4	Too many have already bet on it: little room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	7	Low risks: no lawsuits, scandals or major geopolitical exposure.

Figma (FIG) · Recently listed · 10/14 · Substance without form

Day-one close $115.50 → -80% since. Strong balance sheet; losses come from stock-based pay.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	7	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	7	Did not rush: launched (or delays launching) from strength, not out of need for money.
C3	Healthy funding	7	Healthy funding: no investors able to flood the market.
C4	Attracts skilled people	8	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	8	Customers come naturally and pay, not only for rewards.
C6	Credible team	8	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	5	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	8	Organic community: people came for the product.
C9	Obvious problem	8	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	6	Fair price, with no clear discount.
C11	Balanced media	5	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	3	The price is falling or erratic, without support.
C13	Few on the same bet	7	Few on the same bet: still room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	7	Low risks: no lawsuits, scandals or major geopolitical exposure.

Sierra · Start-up with product · 9/14 · Substance confirmed

Founded by Bret Taylor (ex-Salesforce, OpenAI chair).

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	7	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	7	Did not rush: launched (or delays launching) from strength, not out of need for money.
C3	Healthy funding	7	Healthy funding: no investors able to flood the market.
C4	Attracts skilled people	7	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	7	Customers come naturally and pay, not only for rewards.
C6	Credible team	9	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	6	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	4	The community came mostly for quick gains.
C9	Obvious problem	7	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	4	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	6	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	8	Healthy price behaviour: stable or rising, backed by volume.
C13	Few on the same bet	6	Some investors are positioned, but it is not crowded.
C14	Low risks	8	Low risks: no lawsuits, scandals or major geopolitical exposure.

Plaid · Pre-IPO · 8/14 · Substance without form

Below its 2021 valuation ($13.4B) — a post-capitulation candidate.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	7	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	6	The launch timing says nothing special, good or bad.
C3	Healthy funding	7	Healthy funding: no investors able to flood the market.
C4	Attracts skilled people	7	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	8	Customers come naturally and pay, not only for rewards.
C6	Credible team	7	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	6	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	6	A real community, mixed with speculators.
C9	Obvious problem	8	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	7	Good entry price: cheap versus rivals, its peak or what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	6	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	4	The price is falling or erratic, without support.
C13	Few on the same bet	6	Some investors are positioned, but it is not crowded.
C14	Low risks	7	Low risks: no lawsuits, scandals or major geopolitical exposure.

SpaceX (SPCX) · Recently listed · 8/14 · Substance confirmed

Peak $2.66T on 16 Jun, low $108 in July, recovered. Most crowded trade; valued at ~100x revenue.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	9	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	7	Did not rush: launched (or delays launching) from strength, not out of need for money.
C3	Healthy funding	7	Healthy funding: no investors able to flood the market.
C4	Attracts skilled people	9	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	8	Customers come naturally and pay, not only for rewards.
C6	Credible team	7	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	4	Many shares or tokens may soon hit the market and dilute holders.
C8	Organic community	9	Organic community: people came for the product.
C9	Obvious problem	8	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	2	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	4	The press is euphoric: historically, euphoria often marked the top.
C12	Healthy price and volume	5	Stable price, no clear signals.
C13	Few on the same bet	2	Too many have already bet on it: little room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	6	A few risks to watch, nothing serious.

Periodic Labs · Pre-product start-up · 8/14 · Substance being confirmed

Pre-product; own physical lab.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	2	No users or revenue yet to prove demand; it is mostly a promise.
C2	Launch from strength	7	Did not rush: launched (or delays launching) from strength, not out of need for money.
C3	Healthy funding	7	Healthy funding: no investors able to flood the market.
C4	Attracts skilled people	8	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	2	Activity looks bought with rewards or subsidies, not organic.
C6	Credible team	8	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	5	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	5	A real community, mixed with speculators.
C9	Obvious problem	8	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	4	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	7	Balanced attention: neither ignored nor in euphoria.
C12	Healthy price and volume	6	Stable price, no clear signals.
C13	Few on the same bet	7	Few on the same bet: still room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	7	Low risks: no lawsuits, scandals or major geopolitical exposure.

Cognition · Start-up with product · 7/14 · Substance confirmed

Series D $1B (May 2026). Competes directly with the large labs.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	8	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	6	The launch timing says nothing special, good or bad.
C3	Healthy funding	6	Reasonable funding, with some risk of large sales.
C4	Attracts skilled people	8	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	7	Customers come naturally and pay, not only for rewards.
C6	Credible team	8	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	6	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	5	A real community, mixed with speculators.
C9	Obvious problem	8	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	3	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	6	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	8	Healthy price behaviour: stable or rising, backed by volume.
C13	Few on the same bet	4	Too many have already bet on it: little room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	7	Low risks: no lawsuits, scandals or major geopolitical exposure.

Replit · Start-up with product · 7/14 · Substance confirmed

In the Forbes AI 50 (2026).

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	7	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	6	The launch timing says nothing special, good or bad.
C3	Healthy funding	6	Reasonable funding, with some risk of large sales.
C4	Attracts skilled people	8	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	6	Customers are real, but part of the activity is artificially boosted.
C6	Credible team	7	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	6	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	8	Organic community: people came for the product.
C9	Obvious problem	7	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	5	Fair price, with no clear discount.
C11	Balanced media	6	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	7	Healthy price behaviour: stable or rising, backed by volume.
C13	Few on the same bet	5	Some investors are positioned, but it is not crowded.
C14	Low risks	7	Low risks: no lawsuits, scandals or major geopolitical exposure.

Circle (CRCL) · Recently listed · 6/14 · Substance confirmed

52-week high $140. Revenue tied to interest rates: falls when rates fall.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	8	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	6	The launch timing says nothing special, good or bad.
C3	Healthy funding	7	Healthy funding: no investors able to flood the market.
C4	Attracts skilled people	6	Attracts talent and partners at a normal pace.
C5	Real customers	7	Customers come naturally and pay, not only for rewards.
C6	Credible team	7	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	6	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	6	A real community, mixed with speculators.
C9	Obvious problem	8	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	5	Fair price, with no clear discount.
C11	Balanced media	5	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	5	Stable price, no clear signals.
C13	Few on the same bet	5	Some investors are positioned, but it is not crowded.
C14	Low risks	7	Low risks: no lawsuits, scandals or major geopolitical exposure.

Harvey · Start-up with product · 6/14 · Substance confirmed

Over $1B raised; clients are large law firms.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	7	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	6	The launch timing says nothing special, good or bad.
C3	Healthy funding	6	Reasonable funding, with some risk of large sales.
C4	Attracts skilled people	6	Attracts talent and partners at a normal pace.
C5	Real customers	7	Customers come naturally and pay, not only for rewards.
C6	Credible team	7	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	6	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	5	A real community, mixed with speculators.
C9	Obvious problem	8	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	4	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	6	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	8	Healthy price behaviour: stable or rising, backed by volume.
C13	Few on the same bet	5	Some investors are positioned, but it is not crowded.
C14	Low risks	7	Low risks: no lawsuits, scandals or major geopolitical exposure.

OpenAI · Pre-IPO · 6/14 · Substance confirmed

Massive cash burn and huge compute commitments; complex legal structure.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	10	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	6	The launch timing says nothing special, good or bad.
C3	Healthy funding	3	Large investors can sell a lot quickly, which can weigh on the price.
C4	Attracts skilled people	9	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	8	Customers come naturally and pay, not only for rewards.
C6	Credible team	6	Credible team, but without a long track record.
C7	Well-distributed supply	3	Many shares or tokens may soon hit the market and dilute holders.
C8	Organic community	9	Organic community: people came for the product.
C9	Obvious problem	9	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	3	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	5	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	7	Healthy price behaviour: stable or rising, backed by volume.
C13	Few on the same bet	2	Too many have already bet on it: little room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	5	A few risks to watch, nothing serious.

Glean · Start-up with product · 6/14 · Substance without form

Stable valuation; category under attack from Microsoft/Google.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	7	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	7	Did not rush: launched (or delays launching) from strength, not out of need for money.
C3	Healthy funding	6	Reasonable funding, with some risk of large sales.
C4	Attracts skilled people	6	Attracts talent and partners at a normal pace.
C5	Real customers	7	Customers come naturally and pay, not only for rewards.
C6	Credible team	7	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	6	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	4	The community came mostly for quick gains.
C9	Obvious problem	7	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	6	Fair price, with no clear discount.
C11	Balanced media	6	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	5	Stable price, no clear signals.
C13	Few on the same bet	6	Some investors are positioned, but it is not crowded.
C14	Low risks	7	Low risks: no lawsuits, scandals or major geopolitical exposure.

Physical Intelligence · Pre-product start-up · 6/14 · Form without substance

Pre-product (research models).

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	3	No users or revenue yet to prove demand; it is mostly a promise.
C2	Launch from strength	7	Did not rush: launched (or delays launching) from strength, not out of need for money.
C3	Healthy funding	6	Reasonable funding, with some risk of large sales.
C4	Attracts skilled people	8	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	2	Activity looks bought with rewards or subsidies, not organic.
C6	Credible team	8	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	5	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	6	A real community, mixed with speculators.
C9	Obvious problem	8	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	3	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	6	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	7	Healthy price behaviour: stable or rising, backed by volume.
C13	Few on the same bet	5	Some investors are positioned, but it is not crowded.
C14	Low risks	7	Low risks: no lawsuits, scandals or major geopolitical exposure.

Unconventional AI · Pre-product start-up · 6/14 · Substance being confirmed

Pre-product.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	2	No users or revenue yet to prove demand; it is mostly a promise.
C2	Launch from strength	6	The launch timing says nothing special, good or bad.
C3	Healthy funding	7	Healthy funding: no investors able to flood the market.
C4	Attracts skilled people	7	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	1	Activity looks bought with rewards or subsidies, not organic.
C6	Credible team	8	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	5	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	4	The community came mostly for quick gains.
C9	Obvious problem	7	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	3	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	6	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	6	Stable price, no clear signals.
C13	Few on the same bet	7	Few on the same bet: still room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	7	Low risks: no lawsuits, scandals or major geopolitical exposure.

Project Prometheus · Pre-product start-up · 6/14 · Form without substance

No product, no revenue, no announced customers.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	2	No users or revenue yet to prove demand; it is mostly a promise.
C2	Launch from strength	6	The launch timing says nothing special, good or bad.
C3	Healthy funding	9	Healthy funding: no investors able to flood the market.
C4	Attracts skilled people	8	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	1	Activity looks bought with rewards or subsidies, not organic.
C6	Credible team	8	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	5	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	4	The community came mostly for quick gains.
C9	Obvious problem	7	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	1	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	5	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	7	Healthy price behaviour: stable or rising, backed by volume.
C13	Few on the same bet	4	Too many have already bet on it: little room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	7	Low risks: no lawsuits, scandals or major geopolitical exposure.

Mercor · Start-up with product · 5/14 · Substance confirmed

Depends on the budgets of the large AI labs.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	9	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	6	The launch timing says nothing special, good or bad.
C3	Healthy funding	8	Healthy funding: no investors able to flood the market.
C4	Attracts skilled people	6	Attracts talent and partners at a normal pace.
C5	Real customers	6	Customers are real, but part of the activity is artificially boosted.
C6	Credible team	7	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	6	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	4	The community came mostly for quick gains.
C9	Obvious problem	7	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	4	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	6	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	9	Healthy price behaviour: stable or rising, backed by volume.
C13	Few on the same bet	6	Some investors are positioned, but it is not crowded.
C14	Low risks	6	A few risks to watch, nothing serious.

Kraken (Payward) · Pre-IPO · 5/14 · Substance without form

Volatile valuations ($20B → $13.3B → $21B).

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	7	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	5	The launch timing says nothing special, good or bad.
C3	Healthy funding	7	Healthy funding: no investors able to flood the market.
C4	Attracts skilled people	6	Attracts talent and partners at a normal pace.
C5	Real customers	7	Customers come naturally and pay, not only for rewards.
C6	Credible team	6	Credible team, but without a long track record.
C7	Well-distributed supply	6	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	7	Organic community: people came for the product.
C9	Obvious problem	7	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	6	Fair price, with no clear discount.
C11	Balanced media	6	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	5	Stable price, no clear signals.
C13	Few on the same bet	6	Some investors are positioned, but it is not crowded.
C14	Low risks	6	A few risks to watch, nothing serious.

Chime (CHYM) · Recently listed · 5/14 · Substance being confirmed

52-week range $15.9-35.6. Roughly at its IPO price after 16 months.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	7	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	5	The launch timing says nothing special, good or bad.
C3	Healthy funding	6	Reasonable funding, with some risk of large sales.
C4	Attracts skilled people	5	Attracts talent and partners at a normal pace.
C5	Real customers	7	Customers come naturally and pay, not only for rewards.
C6	Credible team	6	Credible team, but without a long track record.
C7	Well-distributed supply	5	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	6	A real community, mixed with speculators.
C9	Obvious problem	7	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	7	Good entry price: cheap versus rivals, its peak or what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	5	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	5	Stable price, no clear signals.
C13	Few on the same bet	7	Few on the same bet: still room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	6	A few risks to watch, nothing serious.

Perplexity · Start-up with product · 5/14 · Substance confirmed

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	7	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	5	The launch timing says nothing special, good or bad.
C3	Healthy funding	5	Reasonable funding, with some risk of large sales.
C4	Attracts skilled people	7	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	6	Customers are real, but part of the activity is artificially boosted.
C6	Credible team	7	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	6	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	7	Organic community: people came for the product.
C9	Obvious problem	7	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	3	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	4	The press is euphoric: historically, euphoria often marked the top.
C12	Healthy price and volume	6	Stable price, no clear signals.
C13	Few on the same bet	4	Too many have already bet on it: little room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	5	A few risks to watch, nothing serious.

Safe Superintelligence (SSI) · Pre-product start-up · 5/14 · Form without substance

No product. Co-founder Daniel Gross left (2025).

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	2	No users or revenue yet to prove demand; it is mostly a promise.
C2	Launch from strength	9	Did not rush: launched (or delays launching) from strength, not out of need for money.
C3	Healthy funding	6	Reasonable funding, with some risk of large sales.
C4	Attracts skilled people	9	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	1	Activity looks bought with rewards or subsidies, not organic.
C6	Credible team	9	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	5	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	5	A real community, mixed with speculators.
C9	Obvious problem	6	The problem is real, but not very pressing.
C10	Good entry price	2	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	7	Balanced attention: neither ignored nor in euphoria.
C12	Healthy price and volume	7	Healthy price behaviour: stable or rising, backed by volume.
C13	Few on the same bet	4	Too many have already bet on it: little room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	6	A few risks to watch, nothing serious.

Cerebras (CBRS) · Recently listed · 4/14 · Substance being confirmed

52-week high $386. TD Cowen cut its target below the IPO price (Oct). Few large customers.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	7	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	4	Rushed to market or listing, usually when enthusiasm peaked.
C3	Healthy funding	5	Reasonable funding, with some risk of large sales.
C4	Attracts skilled people	7	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	4	Activity looks bought with rewards or subsidies, not organic.
C6	Credible team	7	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	5	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	5	A real community, mixed with speculators.
C9	Obvious problem	7	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	5	Fair price, with no clear discount.
C11	Balanced media	5	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	3	The price is falling or erratic, without support.
C13	Few on the same bet	6	Some investors are positioned, but it is not crowded.
C14	Low risks	6	A few risks to watch, nothing serious.

Thinking Machines Lab · Pre-product start-up · 4/14 · Form without substance

Early product (Tinker API). Co-founder departures.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	3	No users or revenue yet to prove demand; it is mostly a promise.
C2	Launch from strength	7	Did not rush: launched (or delays launching) from strength, not out of need for money.
C3	Healthy funding	6	Reasonable funding, with some risk of large sales.
C4	Attracts skilled people	7	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	3	Activity looks bought with rewards or subsidies, not organic.
C6	Credible team	8	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	5	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	6	A real community, mixed with speculators.
C9	Obvious problem	6	The problem is real, but not very pressing.
C10	Good entry price	2	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	6	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	7	Healthy price behaviour: stable or rising, backed by volume.
C13	Few on the same bet	3	Too many have already bet on it: little room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	5	A few risks to watch, nothing serious.

Merge Labs · Pre-product start-up · 4/14 · Substance being confirmed

Pre-product; potential conflict of interest with OpenAI.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	1	No users or revenue yet to prove demand; it is mostly a promise.
C2	Launch from strength	6	The launch timing says nothing special, good or bad.
C3	Healthy funding	6	Reasonable funding, with some risk of large sales.
C4	Attracts skilled people	7	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	1	Activity looks bought with rewards or subsidies, not organic.
C6	Credible team	7	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	5	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	5	A real community, mixed with speculators.
C9	Obvious problem	7	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	4	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	6	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	6	Stable price, no clear signals.
C13	Few on the same bet	7	Few on the same bet: still room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	5	A few risks to watch, nothing serious.

Discord · Pre-IPO · 3/14 · Substance without form

Valuation flat since 2021.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	7	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	5	The launch timing says nothing special, good or bad.
C3	Healthy funding	6	Reasonable funding, with some risk of large sales.
C4	Attracts skilled people	6	Attracts talent and partners at a normal pace.
C5	Real customers	7	Customers come naturally and pay, not only for rewards.
C6	Credible team	6	Credible team, but without a long track record.
C7	Well-distributed supply	6	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	9	Organic community: people came for the product.
C9	Obvious problem	6	The problem is real, but not very pressing.
C10	Good entry price	6	Fair price, with no clear discount.
C11	Balanced media	5	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	5	Stable price, no clear signals.
C13	Few on the same bet	6	Some investors are positioned, but it is not crowded.
C14	Low risks	6	A few risks to watch, nothing serious.

Figure AI · Start-up with product · 3/14 · Form without substance

Deployments still limited; valuation far above revenue.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	4	No users or revenue yet to prove demand; it is mostly a promise.
C2	Launch from strength	5	The launch timing says nothing special, good or bad.
C3	Healthy funding	5	Reasonable funding, with some risk of large sales.
C4	Attracts skilled people	7	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	3	Activity looks bought with rewards or subsidies, not organic.
C6	Credible team	6	Credible team, but without a long track record.
C7	Well-distributed supply	5	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	6	A real community, mixed with speculators.
C9	Obvious problem	7	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	2	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	3	The press is euphoric: historically, euphoria often marked the top.
C12	Healthy price and volume	7	Healthy price behaviour: stable or rising, backed by volume.
C13	Few on the same bet	4	Too many have already bet on it: little room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	5	A few risks to watch, nothing serious.

CoreWeave (CRWV) · Recently listed · 2/14 · Substance being confirmed

-59% from 52-week high ($141.8). Very high debt; concentrated on a few large customers.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	8	Genuinely used: real users or revenue, not just promises.
C2	Launch from strength	4	Rushed to market or listing, usually when enthusiasm peaked.
C3	Healthy funding	2	Large investors can sell a lot quickly, which can weigh on the price.
C4	Attracts skilled people	6	Attracts talent and partners at a normal pace.
C5	Real customers	5	Customers are real, but part of the activity is artificially boosted.
C6	Credible team	6	Credible team, but without a long track record.
C7	Well-distributed supply	5	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	4	The community came mostly for quick gains.
C9	Obvious problem	7	Obvious problem: explained in one sentence, and people feel it.
C10	Good entry price	6	Fair price, with no clear discount.
C11	Balanced media	5	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	5	Stable price, no clear signals.
C13	Few on the same bet	5	Some investors are positioned, but it is not crowded.
C14	Low risks	5	A few risks to watch, nothing serious.

Reflection AI · Pre-product start-up · 2/14 · Form without substance

No major commercial product.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	3	No users or revenue yet to prove demand; it is mostly a promise.
C2	Launch from strength	6	The launch timing says nothing special, good or bad.
C3	Healthy funding	6	Reasonable funding, with some risk of large sales.
C4	Attracts skilled people	7	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	3	Activity looks bought with rewards or subsidies, not organic.
C6	Credible team	7	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	5	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	6	A real community, mixed with speculators.
C9	Obvious problem	6	The problem is real, but not very pressing.
C10	Good entry price	4	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	6	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	6	Stable price, no clear signals.
C13	Few on the same bet	5	Some investors are positioned, but it is not crowded.
C14	Low risks	6	A few risks to watch, nothing serious.

Humans& · Pre-product start-up · 2/14 · Form without substance

Pre-product.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	2	No users or revenue yet to prove demand; it is mostly a promise.
C2	Launch from strength	6	The launch timing says nothing special, good or bad.
C3	Healthy funding	6	Reasonable funding, with some risk of large sales.
C4	Attracts skilled people	7	Skilled people and partners move toward it: value recognised from the inside.
C5	Real customers	1	Activity looks bought with rewards or subsidies, not organic.
C6	Credible team	7	Credible team: has delivered and has no scandals.
C7	Well-distributed supply	5	Balanced supply, with some unlocks or issuance to watch.
C8	Organic community	4	The community came mostly for quick gains.
C9	Obvious problem	5	The problem is real, but not very pressing.
C10	Good entry price	3	Expensive versus rivals or versus what it produces.
C11	Balanced media	6	Moderate press attention.
C12	Healthy price and volume	6	Stable price, no clear signals.
C13	Few on the same bet	6	Some investors are positioned, but it is not crowded.
C14	Low risks	6	A few risks to watch, nothing serious.

StubHub (STUB) · Recently listed · 1/14 · Substance being confirmed

IPO postponed several times; private-equity exit; debt.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	5	Has users or revenue, but demand is not fully proven yet.
C2	Launch from strength	2	Rushed to market or listing, usually when enthusiasm peaked.
C3	Healthy funding	2	Large investors can sell a lot quickly, which can weigh on the price.
C4	Attracts skilled people	4	Attracts few skilled people, partners or new developers.
C5	Real customers	5	Customers are real, but part of the activity is artificially boosted.
C6	Credible team	4	The team has scandals, key departures or broken promises.
C7	Well-distributed supply	4	Many shares or tokens may soon hit the market and dilute holders.
C8	Organic community	6	A real community, mixed with speculators.
C9	Obvious problem	5	The problem is real, but not very pressing.
C10	Good entry price	6	Fair price, with no clear discount.
C11	Balanced media	3	The press is euphoric: historically, euphoria often marked the top.
C12	Healthy price and volume	1	The price is falling or erratic, without support.
C13	Few on the same bet	8	Few on the same bet: still room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	3	High risks: lawsuits, scandals, regulation or geopolitics.

Gemini (GEMI) · Recently listed · 1/14 · Substance being confirmed

-89% vs IPO, near its 52-week low. Founded by the Winklevoss twins.

#	Condition	Score	In plain words
C1	Actually used	3	No users or revenue yet to prove demand; it is mostly a promise.
C2	Launch from strength	3	Rushed to market or listing, usually when enthusiasm peaked.
C3	Healthy funding	3	Large investors can sell a lot quickly, which can weigh on the price.
C4	Attracts skilled people	4	Attracts few skilled people, partners or new developers.
C5	Real customers	4	Activity looks bought with rewards or subsidies, not organic.
C6	Credible team	4	The team has scandals, key departures or broken promises.
C7	Well-distributed supply	4	Many shares or tokens may soon hit the market and dilute holders.
C8	Organic community	5	A real community, mixed with speculators.
C9	Obvious problem	5	The problem is real, but not very pressing.
C10	Good entry price	5	Fair price, with no clear discount.
C11	Balanced media	3	The press is euphoric: historically, euphoria often marked the top.
C12	Healthy price and volume	1	The price is falling or erratic, without support.
C13	Few on the same bet	8	Few on the same bet: still room for new buyers.
C14	Low risks	4	High risks: lawsuits, scandals, regulation or geopolitics.

Weekly prices (the database)

Every Friday, an automated GitHub routine downloads the closes from public sources and adds them here. Points older than a week are no longer changed, and every update stays in the project’s public history. Last update: 5 November 2026.

Weekly prices of the assets on the radar vs. S&P 500 (index, first week = 100). Source: Radar weekly database (CoinGecko and Yahoo Finance closes), retrieved on 2026-11-05. Each series is rebased to 100 on the first Friday, so assets with very different prices can be compared. The raw prices are in the table and in the source file.

Backtest: what happened before the snapshot

Read with care: the scores were given on 29 October 2026, after this period. The chart shows the context in which the scores were given, not the radar’s performance. Real performance is measured only from the snapshot onwards (next section).

Median change in the 8 weeks before the snapshot, by zone (%). Source: Radar weekly database (CoinGecko and Yahoo Finance closes), retrieved on 2026-11-05. Computed automatically from the database: 4 September 2026 → 30 October 2026. In brackets, the number of assets with a public price in each zone.

Computed automatically: in the two months before the snapshot, 0 of 8 assets with a public price rose. The median change was -23.1%, against -1.8% for S&P 500. The smallest fall: SpaceX (SPCX) (-8.9%); the largest fall: Cerebras (CBRS) (-48.0%).

Since the snapshot: the radar’s performance

The first measurement runs automatically on Friday, 6 November 2026, against the close of 30 October 2026. From then on, the table above and this paragraph update weekly, with all assets, including those that fell.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Prices before fees and taxes. This is not investment advice.

How we apply the 14 conditions here

The same algorithm as for crypto, companies and commodities: each condition gets a score from 0 to 10 and is met from 7. The weights are identical in every domain; only what we measure in practice changes.

#	Condition	What we measure	Weight
C1	Actually used	Real revenue, users or demand, not promises.	16%
C2	Launch from strength	The best don’t rush: they launch when ready.	6%
C3	Healthy funding	No investors who can sell heavily right away.	6%
C4	Attracts skilled people	Talent, partners and builders move toward it.	8%
C5	Real customers	Natural activity, not bought or subsidised.	6%
C6	Credible team	A record of finishing things, no scandals.	8%
C7	Well-distributed supply	Few shares or tokens waiting to flood the market.	8%
C8	Organic community	People who came for the product, not quick gains.	4%
C9	Obvious problem	Explainable in one sentence.	6%
C10	Good entry price	Room to grow versus rivals or versus cost.	6%
C11	Balanced media	Media euphoria has historically marked the top.	6%
C12	Healthy price and volume	A steady price while usage grows.	6%
C13	Few on the same bet	The less crowded, the better.	6%
C14	Low risks	No lawsuits, scandals or major geopolitical risk.	8%

Groundwork: official data

The data are being collected from official sources. We show no figure until it has a verifiable source.

Questions about the reasoning

Do you disagree with a score, or want to know why an asset is where it is? Ask. We answer with the weekly update, with sources, by email and, if you agree, here on the page.

Answered questions

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Sources

Radar weekly database (CoinGecko and Yahoo Finance closes) (retrieved on 2026-11-05)

How we check the data →