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World real-estate projects
22 real-estate projects of worldwide interest, from data centres and logistics parks to new capitals, scored on 22 conditions: the 14 adapted conditions and 8 that verify the evidence.
Questions the analysis answers
- Which large real-estate projects have real demand, tenants and healthy funding?
- Which are only form: spectacular buildings or new cities without people or income?
- Through which listed companies can an investor reach these projects?
The projects on the radar
22 real-estate projects of worldwide interest, scored on 22 conditions: 14 adapted conditions (80% of the score) and 8 verification conditions (20%), which check whether the figures can be confirmed independently: outside audit or ranking, official registers, agreement of sources, track record, third-party confirmation, warning signs, resilience under stress and independence from 22Radar. Each score rests on public sources, listed for each project. The scores are frozen in the snapshot of 5 November 2026 (fingerprint in the .sha256 file); the earlier 14-condition snapshot stays published: proiecte-imobiliare-2026-11-05.json. For the listed companies, the trend (C12) is computed from the weekly price. Price conditions cannot be assessed for state or unlisted projects: they get 5 (neutral) in the score and do not count as met.
| # | Project | Type | Where | How to reach it | Conditions | Verification | Score | Substance / form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mitsui Fudosan (Tokyo) | Offices, retail, housing | Japan, US, United Kingdom | Listed (Tokyo: 8801) | 19/22 | 8/8 | 7.74 | Substance without form |
| 2 | NEPI Rockcastle (malls in Central and Eastern Europe) | Shopping centres | Central and Eastern Europe, including Romania | Listed (JSE, Euronext Amsterdam: NRP) | 18/22 | 8/8 | 7.39 | Substance without form |
| 3 | Prologis (logistics parks) | Logistics | Global | Listed (NYSE: PLD) | 17/22 | 8/8 | 7.63 | Substance without form |
| 4 | Welltower (senior housing) | Senior housing | US, Canada, United Kingdom | Listed (NYSE: WELL) | 17/22 | 7/8 | 7.58 | Substance confirmed |
| 5 | Segro (logistics warehouses and data centres) | Logistics and data centres | United Kingdom and continental Europe | Listed (LSE: SGRO) | 17/22 | 8/8 | 7.44 | Substance without form |
| 6 | Equinix (data centres) | Data centres | Global | Listed (NASDAQ: EQIX) | 16/22 | 7/8 | 7.69 | Substance confirmed |
| 7 | American Tower (telecom towers and data centres) | Digital infrastructure | Global | Listed (NYSE: AMT) | 16/22 | 8/8 | 7.64 | Substance without form |
| 8 | Goodman Group (logistics and data centres) | Logistics and data centres | Global | Listed (ASX: GMG) | 16/22 | 8/8 | 7.53 | Substance confirmed |
| 9 | CTP (industrial parks in Central and Eastern Europe) | Logistics and industry | Central and Eastern Europe, including Romania | Listed (Euronext Amsterdam: CTPNV) | 16/22 | 8/8 | 7.12 | Substance without form |
| 10 | Digital Realty (data centres) | Data centres | Global | Listed (NYSE: DLR) | 15/22 | 8/8 | 7.17 | Substance confirmed |
| 11 | Aldar Properties (Abu Dhabi) | Mixed-use development | United Arab Emirates | Listed (ADX: ALDAR) | 15/22 | 8/8 | 6.98 | Substance without form |
| 12 | Emaar Properties (Dubai) | Mixed-use development | United Arab Emirates | Listed (DFM: EMAAR) | 15/22 | 7/8 | 6.87 | Substance being confirmed |
| 13 | Vonovia (rental housing) | Housing | Germany, Sweden, Austria | Listed (Xetra: VNA) | 14/22 | 7/8 | 6.93 | Substance without form |
| 14 | Invitation Homes (single-family rentals in the US) | Rental housing | US | Listed (NYSE: INVH) | 13/22 | 7/8 | 7.02 | Substance without form |
| 15 | Sun Hung Kai Properties (Hong Kong) | Mixed-use development | Hong Kong, mainland China | Listed (HKEX: 0016) | 12/22 | 6/8 | 6.50 | Substance being confirmed |
| 16 | One United Properties (Bucharest) | Premium housing and offices | Romania | Listed (BVB: ONE) | 11/22 | 5/8 | 6.74 | Substance without form |
| 17 | Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (flagship malls) | Shopping centres | Europe, US | Listed (Euronext Paris: URW) | 11/22 | 7/8 | 6.47 | Substance being confirmed |
| 18 | Jeddah Tower (Saudi Arabia) | Skyscraper, world's tallest | Saudi Arabia | Not listed (Jeddah Economic Company) | 2/22 | 2/8 | 4.78 | Form without substance |
| 19 | Diriyah (Saudi Arabia) | Tourism and culture district | Saudi Arabia | Not listed (Diriyah Company, PIF) | 2/22 | 2/8 | 4.61 | Form without substance |
| 20 | Egypt's New Capital | New city | Egypt | State project (ACUD) | 2/22 | 2/8 | 4.38 | Form without substance |
| 21 | NEOM, The Line (Saudi Arabia) | Linear city | Saudi Arabia | State project (PIF), halted | 2/22 | 2/8 | 2.91 | Form without substance |
| 22 | Nusantara, Indonesia's new capital | New city | Indonesia | State project | 1/22 | 1/8 | 4.12 | Substance being confirmed |
Each project, condition by condition
Mitsui Fudosan (Tokyo) · Listed (Tokyo: 8801) · 19/22 · verification 8/8 · score 7.74 · Substance without form
Japan’s largest real-estate developer, regenerating whole districts of Tokyo (Nihonbashi, Tokyo Midtown). New offices in central Tokyo let well, and foreign investors have increased their interest in Japanese real estate. Debt is moderate, and rising Japanese interest rates are the main risk.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 8 | Space let or sold, with real income. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 8 | Launched or expanded from strength. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 6 | Reasonable funding, with some risks. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 7 | Large tenants and partners come to the project. |
| C5 | Real customers | 8 | The space is used by those who buy or rent it. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 9 | A credible developer with projects delivered on time. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 7 | Little competing supply. |
| C8 | A living place | 7 | A living place: people actually live and work there. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 7 | An obvious need, easy to explain. |
| C10 | Good entry price | 6 | Fair price. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 7 | The shares have risen recently. Data: the share price +4.7% in two months (Yahoo Finance, 8801.T) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Low risks | 8 | Low risks. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Audited filings on the Tokyo exchange and more than 80 years of history, with named tenants and partners.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 10 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 10 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 10 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 9 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 9 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 8 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: Mitsui Fudosan, investor relations
NEPI Rockcastle (malls in Central and Eastern Europe) · Listed (JSE, Euronext Amsterdam: NRP) · 18/22 · verification 8/8 · score 7.39 · Substance without form
The largest shopping-centre owner in Central and Eastern Europe, with a large share in Romania (for example Promenada and Mega Mall in Bucharest). Occupancy is almost full and consumer spending in the region is growing; borrowing is moderate.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 8 | Space let or sold, with real income. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 7 | Launched or expanded from strength. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 7 | Healthy funding and refinancing without pressure. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 8 | Large tenants and partners come to the project. |
| C5 | Real customers | 8 | The space is used by those who buy or rent it. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 8 | A credible developer with projects delivered on time. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 6 | Moderate competing supply. |
| C8 | A living place | 9 | A living place: people actually live and work there. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 7 | An obvious need, easy to explain. |
| C10 | Good entry price | 6 | Fair price. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 3 | The shares have fallen recently. Data: the share price -4.4% in two months (Yahoo Finance, NRP.JO) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few investors on the same bet. |
| C14 | Low risks | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Audited filings on the Johannesburg and Amsterdam exchanges, large named tenants; it recovered quickly after the pandemic.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 10 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 10 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 9 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 8 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 8 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 7 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: NEPI Rockcastle, investor relations
Prologis (logistics parks) · Listed (NYSE: PLD) · 17/22 · verification 8/8 · score 7.63 · Substance without form
The world’s largest owner of logistics space, with tenants such as the large online retailers and transport companies. A solid balance sheet and a long delivery record. New warehouse supply in 2023–2024 has tempered rents in some markets, and trade tariffs can shift goods flows.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 8 | Space let or sold, with real income. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 8 | Launched or expanded from strength. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 8 | Healthy funding and refinancing without pressure. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 8 | Large tenants and partners come to the project. |
| C5 | Real customers | 9 | The space is used by those who buy or rent it. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 9 | A credible developer with projects delivered on time. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 6 | Moderate competing supply. |
| C8 | A living place | 6 | Partly alive. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 8 | An obvious need, easy to explain. |
| C10 | Good entry price | 6 | Fair price. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 2 | The shares have fallen recently. Data: the share price -6.8% in two months (Yahoo Finance, PLD) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Low risks | 7 | Low risks. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Audited SEC reports, the world’s largest logistics owner, came through the 2022–2023 rate shock well.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 10 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 10 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 9 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 10 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 9 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 9 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 8 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: Prologis, investor relations
Welltower (senior housing) · Listed (NYSE: WELL) · 17/22 · verification 7/8 · score 7.58 · Substance confirmed
Population ageing raises demand for housing with care, and little was built after the pandemic, so occupancy is rising. The substance is very good, but the market has already recognised it: the valuation is among the highest in listed real estate.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 9 | Space let or sold, with real income. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 8 | Launched or expanded from strength. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 7 | Healthy funding and refinancing without pressure. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 7 | Large tenants and partners come to the project. |
| C5 | Real customers | 9 | The space is used by those who buy or rent it. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 8 | A credible developer with projects delivered on time. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 7 | Little competing supply. |
| C8 | A living place | 7 | A living place: people actually live and work there. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 9 | An obvious need, easy to explain. |
| C10 | Good entry price | 3 | The shares are expensive versus asset value. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 5 | The shares are stable. Data: the share price -0.7% in two months (Yahoo Finance, WELL) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 4 | Many investors on the same bet. |
| C14 | Low risks | 8 | Low risks. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Audited SEC reports and a long history; the pandemic hit senior housing hard, and recovery only came after 2022.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 10 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 10 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 9 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 10 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 8 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 8 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 6 | It suffered but recovered, or has not yet been tested. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: Welltower, investor relations
Segro (logistics warehouses and data centres) · Listed (LSE: SGRO) · 17/22 · verification 8/8 · score 7.44 · Substance without form
Urban warehouses and logistics parks in the United Kingdom and continental Europe, with high occupancy and a land bank for data centres near London. Borrowing is moderate; rents depend on online retail and the UK economy.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 8 | Space let or sold, with real income. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 7 | Launched or expanded from strength. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 7 | Healthy funding and refinancing without pressure. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 8 | Large tenants and partners come to the project. |
| C5 | Real customers | 9 | The space is used by those who buy or rent it. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 8 | A credible developer with projects delivered on time. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 6 | Moderate competing supply. |
| C8 | A living place | 7 | A living place: people actually live and work there. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 8 | An obvious need, easy to explain. |
| C10 | Good entry price | 6 | Fair price. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 3 | The shares have fallen recently. Data: the share price -4.0% in two months (Yahoo Finance, SGRO.L) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Low risks | 7 | Low risks. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Audited filings on the London exchange and more than 100 years of history; it came through the rate shock without major trouble.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 10 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 10 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 10 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 8 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 9 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 7 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: Segro, investor relations
Equinix (data centres) · Listed (NASDAQ: EQIX) · 16/22 · verification 7/8 · score 7.69 · Substance confirmed
The world’s largest network of interconnection data centres, with more than 260 buildings in more than 70 cities. Demand for artificial intelligence and cloud keeps occupancy high and rents rising. The valuation is already high, and power consumption and grid access are the main limits.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 9 | Space let or sold, with real income. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 8 | Launched or expanded from strength. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 7 | Healthy funding and refinancing without pressure. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 9 | Large tenants and partners come to the project. |
| C5 | Real customers | 9 | The space is used by those who buy or rent it. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 8 | A credible developer with projects delivered on time. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 6 | Moderate competing supply. |
| C8 | A living place | 7 | A living place: people actually live and work there. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 9 | An obvious need, easy to explain. |
| C10 | Good entry price | 5 | Fair price. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 4 | The shares have fallen recently. Data: the share price -2.2% in two months (Yahoo Finance, EQIX) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Low risks | 7 | Low risks. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Audited reports filed with the SEC and decades of history; in 2024 a short-seller report led to US regulatory inquiries, still to watch.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 10 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 10 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 9 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 10 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 9 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 6 | A few signals to watch. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 9 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: Equinix, investor relations
American Tower (telecom towers and data centres) · Listed (NYSE: AMT) · 16/22 · verification 8/8 · score 7.64 · Substance without form
The world’s largest independent owner of telecom towers, leased to mobile operators on long contracts, plus the CoreSite data centres in the US. Debt is high, and a few US operators bring in a large share of revenue.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 8 | Space let or sold, with real income. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 7 | Launched or expanded from strength. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 5 | Reasonable funding, with some risks. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 8 | Large tenants and partners come to the project. |
| C5 | Real customers | 9 | The space is used by those who buy or rent it. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 8 | A credible developer with projects delivered on time. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 7 | Little competing supply. |
| C8 | A living place | 6 | Partly alive. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 9 | An obvious need, easy to explain. |
| C10 | Good entry price | 6 | Fair price. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 8 | The shares have risen recently. Data: the share price +6.8% in two months (Yahoo Finance, AMT) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Low risks | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Audited SEC reports and long contracts with named mobile operators; high debt weighed during the period of high interest rates.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 10 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 10 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 9 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 10 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 9 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 8 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 7 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: American Tower, investor relations
Goodman Group (logistics and data centres) · Listed (ASX: GMG) · 16/22 · verification 8/8 · score 7.53 · Substance confirmed
An Australian logistics-park developer turning its land in large cities into data centres, with a lot of capital from institutional partners. Borrowing is low, but the valuation is high and many investors are betting on the same data-centre story.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 9 | Space let or sold, with real income. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 8 | Launched or expanded from strength. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 8 | Healthy funding and refinancing without pressure. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 9 | Large tenants and partners come to the project. |
| C5 | Real customers | 8 | The space is used by those who buy or rent it. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 8 | A credible developer with projects delivered on time. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 6 | Moderate competing supply. |
| C8 | A living place | 6 | Partly alive. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 9 | An obvious need, easy to explain. |
| C10 | Good entry price | 4 | The shares are expensive versus asset value. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 4 | The shares have fallen recently. Data: the share price -2.0% in two months (Yahoo Finance, GMG.AX) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 4 | Many investors on the same bet. |
| C14 | Low risks | 7 | Low risks. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Audited filings on the Sydney exchange, named institutional partners and growth even during the period of high rates.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 10 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 10 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 10 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 9 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 9 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 8 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: Goodman Group, investor relations
CTP (industrial parks in Central and Eastern Europe) · Listed (Euronext Amsterdam: CTPNV) · 16/22 · verification 8/8 · score 7.12 · Substance without form
The largest listed developer of industrial parks in Central and Eastern Europe, with parks in Romania too. It gains from production moving closer to Western Europe (nearshoring). The risks: concentration on the car industry and a slowdown of the German economy.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 8 | Space let or sold, with real income. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 7 | Launched or expanded from strength. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 6 | Reasonable funding, with some risks. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 8 | Large tenants and partners come to the project. |
| C5 | Real customers | 8 | The space is used by those who buy or rent it. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 8 | A credible developer with projects delivered on time. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 6 | Moderate competing supply. |
| C8 | A living place | 6 | Partly alive. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 8 | An obvious need, easy to explain. |
| C10 | Good entry price | 6 | Fair price. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 0 | The shares have fallen recently. Data: the share price -12.8% in two months (Yahoo Finance, CTPNV.AS) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few investors on the same bet. |
| C14 | Low risks | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Audited filings on Euronext Amsterdam since 2021 and named tenants; a shorter record as a listed company.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 10 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 10 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 8 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 8 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 8 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 7 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: CTP, investor relations
Digital Realty (data centres) · Listed (NYSE: DLR) · 15/22 · verification 8/8 · score 7.17 · Substance confirmed
The world’s second-largest data-centre owner, with more than 300 buildings on several continents, let to the large cloud and AI companies. It builds heavily with financial partners; the risk is a wave of new capacity worldwide at the same time.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 8 | Space let or sold, with real income. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 7 | Launched or expanded from strength. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 6 | Reasonable funding, with some risks. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 8 | Large tenants and partners come to the project. |
| C5 | Real customers | 8 | The space is used by those who buy or rent it. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 7 | A credible developer with projects delivered on time. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 5 | Moderate competing supply. |
| C8 | A living place | 6 | Partly alive. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 9 | An obvious need, easy to explain. |
| C10 | Good entry price | 5 | Fair price. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 3 | The shares have fallen recently. Data: the share price -4.1% in two months (Yahoo Finance, DLR) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Low risks | 7 | Low risks. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Audited SEC reports, large named clients and partners, more than 20 years of history.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 10 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 10 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 9 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 10 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 9 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 8 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 7 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: Digital Realty, investor relations
Aldar Properties (Abu Dhabi) · Listed (ADX: ALDAR) · 15/22 · verification 8/8 · score 6.98 · Substance without form
Abu Dhabi’s main developer (Saadiyat, Yas), with recurring rental income alongside sales. The Abu Dhabi market has less new supply than Dubai, but remains exposed to the same regional risk.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 8 | Space let or sold, with real income. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 7 | Launched or expanded from strength. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 7 | Healthy funding and refinancing without pressure. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 8 | Large tenants and partners come to the project. |
| C5 | Real customers | 7 | The space is used by those who buy or rent it. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 8 | A credible developer with projects delivered on time. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 5 | Moderate competing supply. |
| C8 | A living place | 7 | A living place: people actually live and work there. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 6 | A real but not pressing need. |
| C10 | Good entry price | 6 | Fair price. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Low risks | 5 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Audited filings on the Abu Dhabi exchange, partnerships with the state and a long history.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 9 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 9 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 7 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 10 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 8 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 8 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 7 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: Aldar, investor relations
Emaar Properties (Dubai) · Listed (DFM: EMAAR) · 15/22 · verification 7/8 · score 6.87 · Substance being confirmed
The developer of the Burj Khalifa, the Dubai Mall and Dubai Creek Harbour, with a solid balance sheet and large cash from off-plan sales. But the Dubai market has turned: in Q2 2026 prices fell 4% and rents 6% from the previous quarter, and tens of thousands of new homes are being delivered in 2026. The war in the region adds risk.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 8 | Space let or sold, with real income. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 7 | Launched or expanded from strength. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 8 | Healthy funding and refinancing without pressure. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 8 | Large tenants and partners come to the project. |
| C5 | Real customers | 6 | Real customers, mixed with speculators. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 8 | A credible developer with projects delivered on time. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 3 | A wave of competing space is delivered in the same area. |
| C8 | A living place | 7 | A living place: people actually live and work there. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 6 | A real but not pressing need. |
| C10 | Good entry price | 7 | The shares are cheap versus asset value. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 4 | Press euphoria: a historical top signal. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 8 | The shares have risen recently. Data: the share price +6.7% in two months (Yahoo Finance, EMAAR.AE) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 4 | Many investors on the same bet. |
| C14 | Low risks | 4 | High risks: delays, lawsuits or geopolitics. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Audited filings on the Dubai exchange and projects delivered for more than 25 years; it went through the 2009 crash and recovered.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 9 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 9 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 10 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 8 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 8 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 6 | It suffered but recovered, or has not yet been tested. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: Emaar, investor relations; Khaleej Times (Cushman & Wakefield), August 2026
Vonovia (rental housing) · Listed (Xetra: VNA) · 14/22 · verification 7/8 · score 6.93 · Substance without form
Europe’s largest owner of rental housing, with almost all flats occupied, in a Germany where new construction has fallen sharply. The shares trade below asset value, but debt is high, and higher interest rates forced asset sales and dividend cuts.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 8 | Space let or sold, with real income. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 5 | The launch timing says nothing special. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 4 | High debt or uncertain funding. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 5 | Attracts partners at a normal pace. |
| C5 | Real customers | 9 | The space is used by those who buy or rent it. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 6 | A credible developer without a long record. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 8 | Little competing supply. |
| C8 | A living place | 6 | Partly alive. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 8 | An obvious need, easy to explain. |
| C10 | Good entry price | 8 | The shares are cheap versus asset value. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 0 | The shares have fallen recently. Data: the share price -15.5% in two months (Yahoo Finance, VNA.DE) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few investors on the same bet. |
| C14 | Low risks | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Audited filings on the Frankfurt exchange; the 2022–2023 rate shock brought large asset write-downs and a dividend cut.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 10 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 10 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 9 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 10 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 8 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 7 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 4 | It fell in the last crisis and did not recover. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: Vonovia, investor relations
Invitation Homes (single-family rentals in the US) · Listed (NYSE: INVH) · 13/22 · verification 7/8 · score 7.02 · Substance without form
The largest owner of single-family rental homes in the US, with tens of thousands of homes in southern and western cities. Demand is real, but political pressure on large institutional home owners is rising.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 8 | Space let or sold, with real income. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 7 | Launched or expanded from strength. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 6 | Reasonable funding, with some risks. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 6 | Attracts partners at a normal pace. |
| C5 | Real customers | 9 | The space is used by those who buy or rent it. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 8 | A credible developer with projects delivered on time. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 6 | Moderate competing supply. |
| C8 | A living place | 9 | A living place: people actually live and work there. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 8 | An obvious need, easy to explain. |
| C10 | Good entry price | 6 | Fair price. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 2 | The shares have fallen recently. Data: the share price -6.4% in two months (Yahoo Finance, INVH) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Low risks | 5 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Audited SEC reports since 2017; in 2024 it paid USD 48 million to settle charges by the US Federal Trade Commission over hidden fees.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 10 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 10 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 8 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 8 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 5 | A few signals to watch. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 7 | It held up or grew through the last hard period. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: Invitation Homes, investor relations
Sun Hung Kai Properties (Hong Kong) · Listed (HKEX: 0016) · 12/22 · verification 6/8 · score 6.50 · Substance being confirmed
Hong Kong’s largest developer, with a conservative balance sheet. Hong Kong house prices have fallen sharply from the 2021 peak, and offices have high vacancy; the shares are cheap versus asset value, but demand and exposure to mainland China remain weak.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 6 | Partial demand, still being confirmed. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 6 | The launch timing says nothing special. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 7 | Healthy funding and refinancing without pressure. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 6 | Attracts partners at a normal pace. |
| C5 | Real customers | 7 | The space is used by those who buy or rent it. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 8 | A credible developer with projects delivered on time. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 4 | A wave of competing space is delivered in the same area. |
| C8 | A living place | 6 | Partly alive. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 5 | A real but not pressing need. |
| C10 | Good entry price | 8 | The shares are cheap versus asset value. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 1 | The shares have fallen recently. Data: the share price -8.9% in two months (Yahoo Finance, 0016.HK) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few investors on the same bet. |
| C14 | Low risks | 5 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Audited filings on the Hong Kong exchange; in 2014 a former co-chairman was convicted of corruption, and Hong Kong prices have fallen sharply since 2021.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 10 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 10 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 10 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 8 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 6 | A few signals to watch. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 4 | It fell in the last crisis and did not recover. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
One United Properties (Bucharest) · Listed (BVB: ONE) · 11/22 · verification 5/8 · score 6.74 · Substance without form
A developer of premium homes and offices in northern Bucharest. In the first half of 2026 it contracted EUR 106.1 million of residential transactions, at an average price of EUR 3,853 per square metre, 24% higher than a year earlier. Net profit in Q1 2026 fell 78%, however, and the company depends almost entirely on Bucharest’s premium market.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 7 | Space let or sold, with real income. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 6 | The launch timing says nothing special. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 6 | Reasonable funding, with some risks. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 6 | Attracts partners at a normal pace. |
| C5 | Real customers | 6 | Real customers, mixed with speculators. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 7 | A credible developer with projects delivered on time. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 6 | Moderate competing supply. |
| C8 | A living place | 7 | A living place: people actually live and work there. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 6 | A real but not pressing need. |
| C10 | Good entry price | 6 | Fair price. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 7 | The shares have risen recently. Data: the share price +4.6% in two months (Yahoo Finance, ONE.RO) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few investors on the same bet. |
| C14 | Low risks | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange since 2021, with audited reports; a short record and disputes over Bucharest planning permits.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 9 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 10 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 7 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 6 | A few years of record. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 7 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 6 | A few signals to watch. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 6 | It suffered but recovered, or has not yet been tested. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: Romania Insider: H1 2026 transactions; Economedia: Q1 2026 profit
Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (flagship malls) · Listed (Euronext Paris: URW) · 11/22 · verification 7/8 · score 6.47 · Substance being confirmed
The owner of some of Europe’s largest malls (Westfield). Footfall and rents have recovered since the pandemic, but the company is still cutting debt by selling assets, including in the US. The share trades below asset value.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 6 | Partial demand, still being confirmed. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 4 | Rushed, or funded out of need for money. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 4 | High debt or uncertain funding. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 6 | Attracts partners at a normal pace. |
| C5 | Real customers | 7 | The space is used by those who buy or rent it. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 6 | A credible developer without a long record. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 6 | Moderate competing supply. |
| C8 | A living place | 8 | A living place: people actually live and work there. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 5 | A real but not pressing need. |
| C10 | Good entry price | 8 | The shares are cheap versus asset value. |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few investors on the same bet. |
| C14 | Low risks | 5 | A few risks to watch. |
Verification (C15–C22)
Audited filings on Euronext Paris; the pandemic and heavy debt brought large losses, and the company is still selling assets to recover.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 10 | Independently verified: a recent audit, certification or outside ranking. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 10 | Official accounts or filings available for anyone to check. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 8 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 10 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 8 | Named clients, partners or investors confirm publicly. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 7 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 3 | It fell in the last crisis and did not recover. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: URW, investor relations
Jeddah Tower (Saudi Arabia) · Not listed (Jeddah Economic Company) · 2/22 · verification 2/8 · score 4.78 · Form without substance
Construction has resumed, and the tower passed 116 floors (about 466 m) in September 2026, out of 157 planned, for a total height of about 1 km. Completion was postponed towards the end of 2028 because of higher costs. It cannot be bought directly; demand for the tower’s space is not yet proven.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 5 | Partial demand, still being confirmed. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 5 | The launch timing says nothing special. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 5 | Reasonable funding, with some risks. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 6 | Attracts partners at a normal pace. |
| C5 | Real customers | 4 | Space is mostly bought off-plan by investors. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 5 | A credible developer without a long record. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C8 | A living place | 4 | The place is still empty: few people live or work there. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 4 | The need it meets is unclear. |
| C10 | Good entry price | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 4 | Press euphoria: a historical top signal. |
| C12 | Price and volume | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C14 | Low risks | 4 | High risks: delays, lawsuits or geopolitics. |
Verification (C15–C22)
It publishes no audited figures; construction stopped for almost five years (2018–2023), so the project failed the last hard period.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 3 | No verification by a third party. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 3 | Almost nothing in public registers. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 6 | One independent source confirms part of the figures. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 8 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 4 | Only its own claims about clients and partners. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 5 | A few signals to watch. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 2 | It fell in the last crisis and did not recover. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: Gulf News: Jeddah Tower passes 116 floors, September 2026
Diriyah (Saudi Arabia) · Not listed (Diriyah Company, PIF) · 2/22 · verification 2/8 · score 4.61 · Form without substance
One of Saudi Arabia’s giga-projects: a historic, tourist and luxury district near Riyadh, funded by the PIF sovereign fund. Part has opened, but most is under construction, and the state has cut giga-project budgets as oil prices fell.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 4 | The space is not in demand yet: demand is a promise. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 5 | The launch timing says nothing special. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 4 | High debt or uncertain funding. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 6 | Attracts partners at a normal pace. |
| C5 | Real customers | 3 | Space is mostly bought off-plan by investors. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 5 | A credible developer without a long record. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C8 | A living place | 3 | The place is still empty: few people live or work there. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 5 | A real but not pressing need. |
| C10 | Good entry price | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C14 | Low risks | 4 | High risks: delays, lawsuits or geopolitics. |
Verification (C15–C22)
A Saudi sovereign-fund project with no public audited figures; part has opened, but giga-project budgets have been cut.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 3 | No verification by a third party. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 3 | Almost nothing in public registers. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 6 | One independent source confirms part of the figures. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 5 | A few years of record. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 5 | A few third parties confirm, without detail. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 7 | Nothing worrying in public registers. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 4 | It fell in the last crisis and did not recover. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: Diriyah Company, official site
Egypt's New Capital · State project (ACUD) · 2/22 · verification 2/8 · score 4.38 · Form without substance
The ministries and parliament have moved, and about 70% of the land has been sold to developers. In July 2026 just over 30,000 people lived there, against the 500,000 capacity of the first phase. The official buildings exist, but city life is still missing: an example of form ahead of substance.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 4 | The space is not in demand yet: demand is a promise. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 3 | Rushed, or funded out of need for money. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 3 | High debt or uncertain funding. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 5 | Attracts partners at a normal pace. |
| C5 | Real customers | 4 | Space is mostly bought off-plan by investors. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 4 | A developer with delays or broken promises. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | 4 | A wave of competing space is delivered in the same area. |
| C8 | A living place | 3 | The place is still empty: few people live or work there. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 6 | A real but not pressing need. |
| C10 | Good entry price | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C14 | Low risks | 4 | High risks: delays, lawsuits or geopolitics. |
Verification (C15–C22)
A state project with no public audited figures; funding depends on a heavily indebted state backed by the IMF.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 3 | No verification by a third party. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 4 | Almost nothing in public registers. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 5 | One independent source confirms part of the figures. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 7 | Results confirmed over several years. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 4 | Only its own claims about clients and partners. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 5 | A few signals to watch. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 3 | It fell in the last crisis and did not recover. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: Asharq Al-Awsat, July 2026
NEOM, The Line (Saudi Arabia) · State project (PIF), halted · 2/22 · verification 2/8 · score 2.91 · Form without substance
Work on The Line, once estimated at more than USD 1 trillion, has been halted at least until after 2030, and NEOM’s 2030 population target was cut to at most 100,000 people. Only the Oxagon industrial zone and port continue. The clearest example of form without substance on the radar.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 1 | The space is not in demand yet: demand is a promise. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 1 | Rushed, or funded out of need for money. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 3 | High debt or uncertain funding. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 3 | Attracts few important tenants or partners. |
| C5 | Real customers | 1 | Space is mostly bought off-plan by investors. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 3 | A developer with delays or broken promises. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C8 | A living place | 1 | The place is still empty: few people live or work there. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 3 | The need it meets is unclear. |
| C10 | Good entry price | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 2 | Press euphoria: a historical top signal. |
| C12 | Price and volume | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C14 | Low risks | 2 | High risks: delays, lawsuits or geopolitics. |
Verification (C15–C22)
No audited figures; many independent sources confirm the drastic scaling back of the project and the halt of work.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 2 | No verification by a third party. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 2 | Almost nothing in public registers. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 7 | Several independent sources say the same. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 4 | Too new, or no verifiable record. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 3 | Only its own claims about clients and partners. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 3 | Serious litigation, sanctions or signs of insolvency. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 1 | It fell in the last crisis and did not recover. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: Semafor: NEOM halts work on The Line until after 2030 (May 2026)
Nusantara, Indonesia's new capital · State project · 1/22 · verification 1/8 · score 4.12 · Substance being confirmed
A project of more than USD 30 billion, with state funding halved in 2026 and its status reduced to “political capital” by 2028. About 10,000 people live in the city core, including roughly 1,000 civil servants, against a target of 1.2 million by 2029.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 3 | The space is not in demand yet: demand is a promise. |
| C2 | Launch from strength | 2 | Rushed, or funded out of need for money. |
| C3 | Healthy funding | 3 | High debt or uncertain funding. |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | 4 | Attracts few important tenants or partners. |
| C5 | Real customers | 3 | Space is mostly bought off-plan by investors. |
| C6 | Credible developer | 4 | A developer with delays or broken promises. |
| C7 | Balanced supply | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C8 | A living place | 2 | The place is still empty: few people live or work there. |
| C9 | Obvious need | 5 | A real but not pressing need. |
| C10 | Good entry price | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C14 | Low risks | 4 | High risks: delays, lawsuits or geopolitics. |
Verification (C15–C22)
The budget appears in Indonesian government documents, but the promised private investors have not been confirmed, and the pace has slowed since 2024.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C15 | Independent verification | 3 | No verification by a third party. |
| C16 | Data in official registers | 5 | Basic register data, few figures. |
| C17 | Agreement of sources | 6 | One independent source confirms part of the figures. |
| C18 | Track record over time | 4 | Too new, or no verifiable record. |
| C19 | Third-party confirmation | 4 | Only its own claims about clients and partners. |
| C20 | No warning signs | 6 | A few signals to watch. |
| C21 | Resilience under stress | 3 | It fell in the last crisis and did not recover. |
| C22 | Independence from us | 10 | No relationship with 22Radar. |
Sources: NPR: Indonesia’s capital of the future faces doubts in the present (April 2026)
The data behind the scores
What the analysis shows
Mitsui Fudosan (Tokyo) meets the most conditions (19 of 22). The projects with solid substance are the ones that meet a clear need and already have paying tenants: data centres for artificial intelligence, logistics, housing in markets with a shortage. 5 of 22 projects cannot be bought directly; we follow them because they show where states’ money goes and what happens when form comes before substance. The weakest: Jeddah Tower (Saudi Arabia), Diriyah (Saudi Arabia), Egypt's New Capital, NEOM, The Line (Saudi Arabia), Nusantara, Indonesia's new capital.
A spectacular project is not a good investment in itself. What matters is who lives or works there, who pays the rent and how much the developer owes. This is not investment advice.
How we apply the 14 conditions in this domain
The same algorithm as for crypto, companies and commodities: each condition gets a score from 0 to 10 and is met from 7. The weights are identical in every domain; only what we measure in practice changes.
| # | Condition | What we measure | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | Space let or sold, real rental or sales income. | 16% |
| C2 | Launch from strength | Launched or expanded from a strong balance sheet, not out of need for money. | 6% |
| C3 | Healthy funding | Moderate leverage, refinancing without pressure. | 6% |
| C4 | Attracts tenants and partners | Large tenants, financial partners, government partnerships. | 8% |
| C5 | Real customers | The space is used, not just bought off-plan by investors. | 6% |
| C6 | Credible developer | A record of projects delivered on time and on budget. | 8% |
| C7 | Balanced supply | No wave of competing space delivered in the same area. | 8% |
| C8 | A living place | People actually live or work there. | 4% |
| C9 | Obvious need | Meets a clear need: data centres, logistics, housing. | 6% |
| C10 | Good entry price | Shares below asset value or a good yield for the risk. | 6% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | Balanced attention; euphoria marks the top. | 6% |
| C12 | Price and volume | The share price trend, from weekly prices. | 6% |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | Few investors on the same bet. | 6% |
| C14 | Low risks | No major delays, lawsuits or geopolitical risk. | 8% |
Questions about the reasoning
Do you disagree with a score, or want to know why an asset is where it is? Ask. We answer with the weekly update, with sources, by email and, if you agree, here on the page.
Answered questions
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Sources
- Radar weekly database (CoinGecko and Yahoo Finance closes) (retrieved on 2026-11-05)