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S&P 500
22 of the largest companies in the S&P 500 index, scored on the same 14 conditions, with figures from annual reports and weekly prices.
Questions the analysis answers
- Which of the largest US companies have the strongest fundamentals: growth, cash flow, balance sheet?
- Where is the share price justified by cash flow, and where is it held up only by expectations?
- How crowded are investments in companies linked to artificial intelligence?
The companies on the radar
22 of the largest companies in the S&P 500, scored on 14 conditions. Six conditions are computed automatically from the annual reports filed with the SEC (the US securities regulator) and from the share price, using published formulas; the other eight are judgement, with a rationale for each company. The scores are frozen in the snapshot of 1 November 2026 (SHA-256 fingerprint in the .sha256 file). The input data update automatically every Friday.
| # | Company | Conditions | Score | Substance / form | Revenue growth | FCF margin | FCF yield | Shares, 2 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PG Procter & Gamble | 11/14 | 7.10 | Substance without form | +3.3% | 17.4% | 3.9% | +10.3% |
| 2 | V Visa | 10/14 | 8.20 | Substance without form | +11.3% | 53.9% | 2.6% | +10.3% |
| 3 | MA Mastercard | 9/14 | 8.08 | Substance confirmed | +16.4% | 50.1% | 2.8% | +10.2% |
| 4 | MSFT Microsoft | 9/14 | 7.50 | Substance confirmed | +17.8% | 20.2% | 1.7% | +4.4% |
| 5 | NFLX Netflix | 9/14 | 6.92 | Substance confirmed | +15.9% | 20.9% | 3.4% | -20.7% |
| 6 | WMT Walmart | 9/14 | 6.56 | Substance being confirmed | +4.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | +15.3% |
| 7 | JNJ Johnson & Johnson | 9/14 | 6.52 | Substance without form | +6.0% | 20.5% | 2.9% | -0.7% |
| 8 | AAPL Apple | 8/14 | 7.48 | Substance confirmed | +15.1% | 28.4% | 2.7% | +7.7% |
| 9 | COST Costco | 8/14 | 6.74 | Substance confirmed | +10.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | +10.5% |
| 10 | GOOGL Alphabet | 8/14 | 6.56 | Substance confirmed | +15.1% | 18.2% | 2.1% | -17.3% |
| 11 | NVDA Nvidia | 7/14 | 6.74 | Substance confirmed | +65.5% | 44.8% | 2.2% | -11.2% |
| 12 | PLTR Palantir | 7/14 | 6.68 | Substance confirmed | +56.2% | 46.9% | 0.6% | +5.6% |
| 13 | AMZN Amazon | 7/14 | 6.00 | Substance being confirmed | +12.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | -7.0% |
| 14 | XOM Exxon Mobil | 7/14 | 5.96 | Substance being confirmed | -4.5% | 7.3% | 3.3% | +17.4% |
| 15 | JPM JPMorgan Chase | 7/14 | 5.54 | Substance being confirmed | +7.3% | -81.3% | -16.2% | -6.0% |
| 16 | META Meta Platforms | 6/14 | 6.86 | Substance confirmed | +22.2% | 22.9% | 3.0% | -0.3% |
| 17 | AVGO Broadcom | 6/14 | 6.70 | Substance confirmed | +23.9% | 42.1% | 1.9% | -8.9% |
| 18 | LLY Eli Lilly | 6/14 | 6.68 | Substance confirmed | +44.7% | 9.2% | 0.5% | +23.3% |
| 19 | UNH UnitedHealth | 6/14 | 5.78 | Substance being confirmed | +11.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | +2.5% |
| 20 | AMD AMD | 5/14 | 6.86 | Substance confirmed | +34.3% | 19.4% | 1.0% | +5.7% |
| 21 | ORCL Oracle | 4/14 | 5.14 | Substance being confirmed | +17.3% | -35.2% | -7.2% | -17.7% |
| 22 | TSLA Tesla | 3/14 | 4.24 | Form without substance | -2.9% | 6.6% | 0.5% | +12.9% |
Each company, condition by condition
Open a company to see the score on each condition, the data behind the computed scores and the rationale for the judgement scores. Conditions without data get 5 (neutral) in the score and do not count as met.
PG · Procter & Gamble · 11/14 · score 7.10 · Substance without form
Everyday consumer goods bought again and again (Pampers, Gillette, Tide); high stability, low growth. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 6 | Revenue is growing slowly. Data: revenue USD 87.0 billion (fiscal year ended 2026-06-30), +3.3% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 7 | The company buys back shares from profit: each share is worth more. Data: shares outstanding -0.8% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 9 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 22.8 billion, cash USD 9.9 billion, operating cash flow USD 19.6 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 3 | Little exposure to new markets. |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 9 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 8 | Credible management that keeps its promises. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 6 | Generates moderate free cash. Data: free cash flow USD 15.1 billion, margin 17.4% |
| C8 | Diversity | 8 | Diversified: many products and markets. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 8 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 8 | Cheap versus the cash it generates. Data: market cap USD 0.39 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 3.9% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 10 | The stock has risen recently. Data: the share price +10.3% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Not crowded: room for new buyers. |
| C14 | Low risks | 7 | Low risks. |
V · Visa · 10/14 · score 8.20 · Substance without form
A global payments network with very high margins and revenue from every transaction; the risks are fee regulation and competing instant payments. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 9 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 40.0 billion (fiscal year ended 2025-09-30), +11.3% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 10 | The company buys back shares from profit: each share is worth more. Data: shares outstanding -2.4% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 10 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 19.6 billion, cash USD 17.2 billion, operating cash flow USD 23.1 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 6 | Moderate exposure to new markets. |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 9 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 9 | Credible management that keeps its promises. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 10 | Generates a lot of free cash after investment. Data: free cash flow USD 21.6 billion, margin 53.9% |
| C8 | Diversity | 8 | Diversified: many products and markets. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 9 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 5 | Fair price. Data: market cap USD 0.82 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 2.6% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 10 | The stock has risen recently. Data: the share price +10.3% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderately crowded. |
| C14 | Low risks | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
MA · Mastercard · 9/14 · score 8.08 · Substance confirmed
A global payments network with very high margins and a network effect that is hard to copy; the risks are antitrust cases over fees and competition from instant payments. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 10 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 32.8 billion (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31), +16.4% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 9 | The company buys back shares from profit: each share is worth more. Data: shares outstanding -2.1% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 9 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 18.3 billion, cash USD 10.6 billion, operating cash flow USD 17.6 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 6 | Moderate exposure to new markets. |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 9 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 9 | Credible management that keeps its promises. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 10 | Generates a lot of free cash after investment. Data: free cash flow USD 16.4 billion, margin 50.1% |
| C8 | Diversity | 7 | Diversified: many products and markets. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 9 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 6 | Fair price. Data: market cap USD 0.59 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 2.8% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 10 | The stock has risen recently. Data: the share price +10.2% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 4 | One of the most crowded trades: everyone already owns it. |
| C14 | Low risks | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
MSFT · Microsoft · 9/14 · score 7.50 · Substance confirmed
Cloud (Azure), office software and AI with corporate customers on subscription; a dominant position, but one of the most crowded stocks in the world. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 10 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 331.8 billion (fiscal year ended 2026-06-30), +17.8% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 6 | The share count is stable. Data: shares outstanding -0.1% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 10 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 31.1 billion, cash USD 20.9 billion, operating cash flow USD 182.9 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 9 | Real exposure to growing new markets (AI, energy, health). |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 9 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 9 | Credible management that keeps its promises. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 7 | Generates a lot of free cash after investment. Data: free cash flow USD 67.0 billion, margin 20.2% |
| C8 | Diversity | 9 | Diversified: many products and markets. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 9 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 3 | Expensive versus the cash it generates. Data: market cap USD 3.99 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 1.7% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 4 | Press euphoria: a historical top signal. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 7 | The stock has risen recently. Data: the share price +4.4% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 3 | One of the most crowded trades: everyone already owns it. |
| C14 | Low risks | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
NFLX · Netflix · 9/14 · score 6.92 · Substance confirmed
The streaming leader, with growing subscriptions and advertising; competition for users’ time remains intense. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 10 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 45.2 billion (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31), +15.9% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 8 | The company buys back shares from profit: each share is worth more. Data: shares outstanding -1.3% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 9 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 13.5 billion, cash USD 9.0 billion, operating cash flow USD 10.1 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 6 | Moderate exposure to new markets. |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 8 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 8 | Credible management that keeps its promises. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 7 | Generates a lot of free cash after investment. Data: free cash flow USD 9.5 billion, margin 20.9% |
| C8 | Diversity | 5 | Partly diversified. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 7 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 7 | Cheap versus the cash it generates. Data: market cap USD 0.28 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 3.4% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 0 | The stock has fallen recently. Data: the share price -20.7% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 4 | One of the most crowded trades: everyone already owns it. |
| C14 | Low risks | 7 | Low risks. |
WMT · Walmart · 9/14 · score 6.56 · Substance being confirmed
The world’s largest retailer, with growing advertising and online sales; thin but stable margins, and a high valuation for a retailer. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 7 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 713.2 billion (fiscal year ended 2026-01-31), +4.7% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 7 | The company buys back shares from profit: each share is worth more. Data: shares outstanding -0.7% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 9 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 34.6 billion, cash USD 10.7 billion, operating cash flow USD 41.6 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 6 | Moderate exposure to new markets. |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 9 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 8 | Credible management that keeps its promises. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 1 | Generates little free cash after investment, or even negative. Data: free cash flow USD 14.9 billion, margin 2.1% |
| C8 | Diversity | 8 | Diversified: many products and markets. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 8 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 3 | Expensive versus the cash it generates. Data: market cap USD 1.03 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 1.5% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 10 | The stock has risen recently. Data: the share price +15.3% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 4 | One of the most crowded trades: everyone already owns it. |
| C14 | Low risks | 7 | Low risks. |
JNJ · Johnson & Johnson · 9/14 · score 6.52 · Substance without form
Diversified medicines and medical devices, a solid balance sheet; the talc lawsuits and some patent expiries are the risks. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 7 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 94.2 billion (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31), +6.0% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 6 | The share count is stable. Data: shares outstanding +0.0% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 8 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 39.4 billion, cash USD 19.7 billion, operating cash flow USD 24.5 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 5 | Moderate exposure to new markets. |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 8 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 7 | Credible management that keeps its promises. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 7 | Generates a lot of free cash after investment. Data: free cash flow USD 19.3 billion, margin 20.5% |
| C8 | Diversity | 8 | Diversified: many products and markets. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 7 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 6 | Fair price. Data: market cap USD 0.66 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 2.9% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 5 | The stock is stable. Data: the share price -0.7% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Not crowded: room for new buyers. |
| C14 | Low risks | 4 | High risks: lawsuits, investigations or regulation. |
AAPL · Apple · 8/14 · score 7.48 · Substance confirmed
An ecosystem that is hard to leave and recurring services revenue, but heavy dependence on the iPhone, on production in China, and antitrust cases (App Store). 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 10 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 478.8 billion (fiscal year ended 2026-09-30), +15.1% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 8 | The company buys back shares from profit: each share is worth more. Data: shares outstanding -1.6% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 10 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 68.2 billion, cash USD 36.3 billion, operating cash flow USD 145.1 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 5 | Moderate exposure to new markets. |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 8 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 8 | Credible management that keeps its promises. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 9 | Generates a lot of free cash after investment. Data: free cash flow USD 136.1 billion, margin 28.4% |
| C8 | Diversity | 6 | Partly diversified. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 9 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 5 | Fair price. Data: market cap USD 4.99 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 2.7% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 9 | The stock has risen recently. Data: the share price +7.7% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 4 | One of the most crowded trades: everyone already owns it. |
| C14 | Low risks | 5 | A few risks to watch. |
COST · Costco · 8/14 · score 6.74 · Substance confirmed
A subscription model with renewal above 90%; one of the best-run companies, but also one of the most expensive relative to earnings. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 8 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 303.2 billion (fiscal year ended 2026-08-31), +10.1% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 6 | The share count is stable. Data: shares outstanding +0.0% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 10 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 3.9 billion, cash USD 20.2 billion, operating cash flow USD 15.8 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 4 | Little exposure to new markets. |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 10 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 9 | Credible management that keeps its promises. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 1 | Generates little free cash after investment, or even negative. Data: free cash flow USD 9.4 billion, margin 3.1% |
| C8 | Diversity | 7 | Diversified: many products and markets. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 8 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 4 | Expensive versus the cash it generates. Data: market cap USD 0.47 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 2.0% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 10 | The stock has risen recently. Data: the share price +10.5% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 3 | One of the most crowded trades: everyone already owns it. |
| C14 | Low risks | 8 | Low risks. |
GOOGL · Alphabet · 8/14 · score 6.56 · Substance confirmed
Search, YouTube and cloud, with its own AI models. Antitrust cases in the US and the EU are the biggest risk on the list for the core business. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 10 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 402.8 billion (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31), +15.1% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 8 | The company buys back shares from profit: each share is worth more. Data: shares outstanding -1.0% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 10 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 46.5 billion, cash USD 30.7 billion, operating cash flow USD 164.7 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 8 | Real exposure to growing new markets (AI, energy, health). |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 7 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 7 | Credible management that keeps its promises. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 6 | Generates moderate free cash. Data: free cash flow USD 73.3 billion, margin 18.2% |
| C8 | Diversity | 7 | Diversified: many products and markets. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 8 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 4 | Expensive versus the cash it generates. Data: market cap USD 3.43 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 2.1% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 0 | The stock has fallen recently. Data: the share price -17.3% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 4 | One of the most crowded trades: everyone already owns it. |
| C14 | Low risks | 3 | High risks: lawsuits, investigations or regulation. |
NVDA · Nvidia · 7/14 · score 6.74 · Substance confirmed
The undisputed leader in AI chips, but revenue comes from a few very large customers, and export controls to China and media euphoria are risks. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 10 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 215.9 billion (fiscal year ended 2026-01-31), +65.5% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 7 | The company buys back shares from profit: each share is worth more. Data: shares outstanding -0.7% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 10 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 7.5 billion, cash USD 10.6 billion, operating cash flow USD 102.7 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 10 | Real exposure to growing new markets (AI, energy, health). |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 5 | Partly recurring customers. |
| C6 | Credible management | 8 | Credible management that keeps its promises. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 10 | Generates a lot of free cash after investment. Data: free cash flow USD 96.7 billion, margin 44.8% |
| C8 | Diversity | 4 | Depends on a single product or market. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 9 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 4 | Expensive versus the cash it generates. Data: market cap USD 4.42 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 2.2% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 2 | Press euphoria: a historical top signal. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 0 | The stock has fallen recently. Data: the share price -11.2% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 2 | One of the most crowded trades: everyone already owns it. |
| C14 | Low risks | 5 | A few risks to watch. |
PLTR · Palantir · 7/14 · score 6.68 · Substance confirmed
Analytics software for governments and companies, with fast growth from AI; its valuation is among the highest in the index, and media attention is very high. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 10 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 4.5 billion (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31), +56.2% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 3 | The share count is rising: holders are diluted. Data: shares outstanding +2.2% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 10 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 0.0 billion, cash USD 1.4 billion, operating cash flow USD 2.1 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 9 | Real exposure to growing new markets (AI, energy, health). |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 7 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 6 | Acceptable management. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 10 | Generates a lot of free cash after investment. Data: free cash flow USD 2.1 billion, margin 46.9% |
| C8 | Diversity | 5 | Partly diversified. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 7 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 1 | Expensive versus the cash it generates. Data: market cap USD 0.37 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 0.6% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 2 | Press euphoria: a historical top signal. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 8 | The stock has risen recently. Data: the share price +5.6% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 2 | One of the most crowded trades: everyone already owns it. |
| C14 | Low risks | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
AMZN · Amazon · 7/14 · score 6.00 · Substance being confirmed
Online retail, cloud (AWS) and advertising; diversified businesses with network effects. Very large data-centre investment weighs on cash flow. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 9 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 716.9 billion (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31), +12.4% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 4 | The share count is rising: holders are diluted. Data: shares outstanding +1.3% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 10 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 65.6 billion, cash USD 86.8 billion, operating cash flow USD 139.5 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 8 | Real exposure to growing new markets (AI, energy, health). |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 8 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 8 | Credible management that keeps its promises. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 0 | Generates little free cash after investment, or even negative. Data: free cash flow USD 7.7 billion, margin 1.1% |
| C8 | Diversity | 9 | Diversified: many products and markets. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 9 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 1 | Expensive versus the cash it generates. Data: market cap USD 2.78 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 0.3% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 1 | The stock has fallen recently. Data: the share price -7.0% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 4 | One of the most crowded trades: everyone already owns it. |
| C14 | Low risks | 5 | A few risks to watch. |
XOM · Exxon Mobil · 7/14 · score 5.96 · Substance being confirmed
The largest private oil producer in the US; it gains from the high oil price of 2026, but results follow the commodity cycle. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 3 | Revenue is falling or flat. Data: revenue USD 323.9 billion (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31), -4.5% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 10 | The company buys back shares from profit: each share is worth more. Data: shares outstanding -4.0% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 9 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 27.9 billion, cash USD 10.7 billion, operating cash flow USD 52.0 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 4 | Little exposure to new markets. |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 7 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 7 | Credible management that keeps its promises. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 2 | Generates little free cash after investment, or even negative. Data: free cash flow USD 23.6 billion, margin 7.3% |
| C8 | Diversity | 6 | Partly diversified. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 6 | A moderate competitive advantage. |
| C10 | Valuation | 7 | Cheap versus the cash it generates. Data: market cap USD 0.71 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 3.3% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 10 | The stock has risen recently. Data: the share price +17.4% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderately crowded. |
| C14 | Low risks | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
JPM · JPMorgan Chase · 7/14 · score 5.54 · Substance being confirmed
The largest US bank, with diversified businesses (retail, investment banking, asset management) and well-regarded management; sensitive to the economic cycle and to regulation. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 7 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 181.8 billion (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31), +7.3% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 10 | The company buys back shares from profit: each share is worth more. Data: shares outstanding -3.6% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 0 | High debt versus the cash it generates. Data: debt USD 434.0 billion, cash USD 343.3 billion, operating cash flow USD -147.8 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 6 | Moderate exposure to new markets. |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 8 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 9 | Credible management that keeps its promises. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 0 | Generates little free cash after investment, or even negative. Data: free cash flow USD -147.8 billion, margin -81.3% |
| C8 | Diversity | 8 | Diversified: many products and markets. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 8 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 0 | Expensive versus the cash it generates. Data: market cap USD 0.91 trillion, free-cash-flow yield -16.2% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 2 | The stock has fallen recently. Data: the share price -6.0% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Moderately crowded. |
| C14 | Low risks | 7 | Low risks. |
META · Meta Platforms · 6/14 · score 6.86 · Substance confirmed
More than three billion users and very profitable advertising; heavy spending on AI and virtual reality and regulatory pressure are the risks. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 10 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 201.0 billion (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31), +22.2% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 6 | The share count is stable. Data: shares outstanding -0.2% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 10 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 58.7 billion, cash USD 35.9 billion, operating cash flow USD 115.8 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 7 | Real exposure to growing new markets (AI, energy, health). |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 7 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 6 | Acceptable management. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 8 | Generates a lot of free cash after investment. Data: free cash flow USD 46.1 billion, margin 22.9% |
| C8 | Diversity | 5 | Partly diversified. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 8 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 6 | Fair price. Data: market cap USD 1.52 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 3.0% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 5 | The stock is stable. Data: the share price -0.3% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 4 | One of the most crowded trades: everyone already owns it. |
| C14 | Low risks | 4 | High risks: lawsuits, investigations or regulation. |
AVGO · Broadcom · 6/14 · score 6.70 · Substance confirmed
Custom AI chips and infrastructure software (VMware); strong growth, but concentrated on a few large cloud customers. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 10 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 63.9 billion (fiscal year ended 2025-10-31), +23.9% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 4 | The share count is rising: holders are diluted. Data: shares outstanding +1.2% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 7 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 62.0 billion, cash USD 16.2 billion, operating cash flow USD 27.5 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 9 | Real exposure to growing new markets (AI, energy, health). |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 6 | Partly recurring customers. |
| C6 | Credible management | 8 | Credible management that keeps its promises. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 10 | Generates a lot of free cash after investment. Data: free cash flow USD 26.9 billion, margin 42.1% |
| C8 | Diversity | 6 | Partly diversified. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 8 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 4 | Expensive versus the cash it generates. Data: market cap USD 1.41 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 1.9% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 4 | Press euphoria: a historical top signal. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 1 | The stock has fallen recently. Data: the share price -8.9% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 3 | One of the most crowded trades: everyone already owns it. |
| C14 | Low risks | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
LLY · Eli Lilly · 6/14 · score 6.68 · Substance confirmed
The leader in obesity and diabetes treatments; very fast growth, but dependent on a single family of drugs and on prices negotiated with the state. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 10 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 65.2 billion (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31), +44.7% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 6 | The share count is stable. Data: shares outstanding -0.3% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 6 | Moderate debt. Data: debt USD 40.9 billion, cash USD 7.3 billion, operating cash flow USD 16.8 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 9 | Real exposure to growing new markets (AI, energy, health). |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 7 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 8 | Credible management that keeps its promises. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 3 | Generates little free cash after investment, or even negative. Data: free cash flow USD 6.0 billion, margin 9.2% |
| C8 | Diversity | 6 | Partly diversified. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 8 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 1 | Expensive versus the cash it generates. Data: market cap USD 1.24 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 0.5% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 4 | Press euphoria: a historical top signal. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 10 | The stock has risen recently. Data: the share price +23.3% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 4 | One of the most crowded trades: everyone already owns it. |
| C14 | Low risks | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
UNH · UnitedHealth · 6/14 · score 5.78 · Substance being confirmed
The largest health insurer in the US, hit by rising medical costs, federal investigations and leadership changes. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 9 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 447.6 billion (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31), +11.8% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 8 | The company buys back shares from profit: each share is worth more. Data: shares outstanding -1.0% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 5 | Moderate debt. Data: debt USD 72.3 billion, cash USD 24.4 billion, operating cash flow USD 19.7 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 4 | Little exposure to new markets. |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 8 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 4 | Management with broken promises or governance issues. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 1 | Generates little free cash after investment, or even negative. Data: free cash flow USD 16.1 billion, margin 3.6% |
| C8 | Diversity | 7 | Diversified: many products and markets. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 7 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 9 | Cheap versus the cash it generates. Data: market cap USD 0.36 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 4.5% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 4 | Press euphoria: a historical top signal. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 6 | The stock is stable. Data: the share price +2.5% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderately crowded. |
| C14 | Low risks | 2 | High risks: lawsuits, investigations or regulation. |
AMD · AMD · 5/14 · score 6.86 · Substance confirmed
Nvidia’s main competitor in AI chips and a leader in server processors; it still has to prove large sales of AI accelerators. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 10 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 34.6 billion (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31), +34.3% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 5 | The share count is stable. Data: shares outstanding +0.5% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 10 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 2.3 billion, cash USD 5.5 billion, operating cash flow USD 7.7 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 9 | Real exposure to growing new markets (AI, energy, health). |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 6 | Partly recurring customers. |
| C6 | Credible management | 8 | Credible management that keeps its promises. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 6 | Generates moderate free cash. Data: free cash flow USD 6.7 billion, margin 19.4% |
| C8 | Diversity | 6 | Partly diversified. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 6 | A moderate competitive advantage. |
| C10 | Valuation | 2 | Expensive versus the cash it generates. Data: market cap USD 0.67 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 1.0% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 4 | Press euphoria: a historical top signal. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 8 | The stock has risen recently. Data: the share price +5.7% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 4 | One of the most crowded trades: everyone already owns it. |
| C14 | Low risks | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
ORCL · Oracle · 4/14 · score 5.14 · Substance being confirmed
Huge AI cloud contracts, but funded with fast-rising debt; data-centre investment makes free cash flow negative. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 10 | Revenue is growing strongly. Data: revenue USD 67.4 billion (fiscal year ended 2026-05-31), +17.3% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 2 | The share count is rising: holders are diluted. Data: shares outstanding +2.6% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 4 | High debt versus the cash it generates. Data: debt USD 122.3 billion, cash USD 31.3 billion, operating cash flow USD 32.0 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 9 | Real exposure to growing new markets (AI, energy, health). |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 8 | Customers who return and pay steadily (subscriptions, repeat consumption). |
| C6 | Credible management | 6 | Acceptable management. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 0 | Generates little free cash after investment, or even negative. Data: free cash flow USD -23.7 billion, margin -35.2% |
| C8 | Diversity | 6 | Partly diversified. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 7 | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology or costs. |
| C10 | Valuation | 0 | Expensive versus the cash it generates. Data: market cap USD 0.33 trillion, free-cash-flow yield -7.2% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 3 | Press euphoria: a historical top signal. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 0 | The stock has fallen recently. Data: the share price -17.7% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 3 | One of the most crowded trades: everyone already owns it. |
| C14 | Low risks | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
TSLA · Tesla · 3/14 · score 4.24 · Form without substance
A valuation tied mostly to promises (robotaxi, robots), while revenue fell in 2025. The share count rose sharply, mainly through the CEO’s share award; governance and extreme media attention lower the score. 10-K reports at the SEC
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | 4 | Revenue is falling or flat. Data: revenue USD 94.8 billion (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31), -2.9% year on year |
| C2 | Capital discipline | 0 | The share count is rising: holders are diluted. Data: shares outstanding +16.6% over a year |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | 10 | Solid balance sheet: low debt or more cash than debt. Data: debt USD 6.6 billion, cash USD 16.5 billion, operating cash flow USD 14.7 billion |
| C4 | New markets | 7 | Real exposure to growing new markets (AI, energy, health). |
| C5 | Recurring customers | 5 | Partly recurring customers. |
| C6 | Credible management | 3 | Management with broken promises or governance issues. |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | 2 | Generates little free cash after investment, or even negative. Data: free cash flow USD 6.2 billion, margin 6.6% |
| C8 | Diversity | 4 | Depends on a single product or market. |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | 5 | A moderate competitive advantage. |
| C10 | Valuation | 1 | Expensive versus the cash it generates. Data: market cap USD 1.27 trillion, free-cash-flow yield 0.5% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 2 | Press euphoria: a historical top signal. |
| C12 | Price and volume | 10 | The stock has risen recently. Data: the share price +12.9% in two months |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 3 | One of the most crowded trades: everyone already owns it. |
| C14 | Low risks | 4 | High risks: lawsuits, investigations or regulation. |
Formulas for the computed conditions
- C1: Revenue growth in the last fiscal year (10-K report): score = 5 + growth in % / 3. Growth of 15% gives 10.
- C2: Change in the share count over the last year (SEC): score = 6 − 1.5 × the change in %. Buybacks that reduce the share count raise the score; issuance lowers it.
- C3: Net debt (long-term debt − cash) relative to operating cash flow: score = 10 − 2 × the ratio. More cash than debt = 10.
- C7: Free-cash-flow margin = (operating cash flow − capital expenditure) / revenue: score = margin in % / 3. A 30% margin gives 10.
- C10: Free-cash-flow yield = free cash flow / market cap (Yahoo price × SEC share count): score = 2 × the yield in %. A 5% yield gives 10.
- C12: The share price’s two-month trend (from 4 September): score = 5 + the change in % / 2.
The data behind the scores
What the data show
A paragraph computed automatically from the data above; it updates with them.
Procter & Gamble (PG) meets the most conditions (11 of 14). 2 companies have 10 or more conditions met. The fastest revenue growth: NVDA (+65.5%), PLTR (+56.2%), LLY (+44.7%). Negative free cash flow in the last fiscal year (they invest more than they generate): JPM, ORCL.
The largest companies in the index are also the most watched: media attention and investor crowding lower the score, even when the business is excellent. A very good company at too high a price can be a poor investment. This is not investment advice.
How we apply the 14 conditions in this domain
The same algorithm as for crypto, companies and commodities: each condition gets a score from 0 to 10 and is met from 7. The weights are identical in every domain; only what we measure in practice changes.
| # | Condition | What we measure | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real revenue | Growing revenue and profit, not just promises. | 16% |
| C2 | Capital discipline | Buybacks from profit, no shareholder dilution. | 6% |
| C3 | Solid balance sheet | Low debt versus cash and profit. | 6% |
| C4 | New markets | Real exposure to new growth (AI, energy, health). | 8% |
| C5 | Recurring customers | Diversified, repeat revenue, not a few big clients. | 6% |
| C6 | Credible management | Promises kept, clean governance. | 8% |
| C7 | Margins and cash flow | Rising margins and free cash flow. | 8% |
| C8 | Diversity | Several products, markets and customer types. | 4% |
| C9 | Competitive advantage | Hard to copy: network, brand, technology, costs. | 6% |
| C10 | Valuation | Price versus earnings and cash flow, against history and sector. | 6% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | Balanced attention; euphoria marks the top. | 6% |
| C12 | Price and volume | Healthy trend, no volume divergence. | 6% |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | Moderate institutional positioning, few bets on the same side. | 6% |
| C14 | Low risks | No major lawsuits, investigations or regulatory risk. | 8% |
Questions about the reasoning
Do you disagree with a score, or want to know why an asset is where it is? Ask. We answer with the weekly update, with sources, by email and, if you agree, here on the page.
Answered questions
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Sources
- 10-K annual reports (SEC), figures retrieved through the Yahoo Finance fundamentals series (retrieved on 2026-11-05)
- Yahoo Finance (closing prices) (retrieved on 2026-11-05)