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National housing markets
22 national housing markets, including Romania, scored on the same 14 conditions, with BIS and IMF data: real house prices, household debt, real interest rates.
Questions the analysis answers
- In which countries are homes expensive or cheap compared with their own history, in real terms?
- Where is demand backed by the economy and a real housing shortage, and where by cheap credit or foreign investors?
- How does Romania’s housing market compare with the region and with the world’s large markets?
The housing markets on the radar
22 national housing markets, scored on 14 conditions adapted to housing. Five conditions are computed automatically from official data (BIS and IMF), using published formulas; the other nine are judgement, with a rationale and sources for each country. The scores are frozen in the snapshot of 2 November 2026 (SHA-256 fingerprint in the .sha256 file). The input data update automatically every Friday; the BIS publishes house prices quarterly, with a delay of a few months.
| # | Country | Conditions | Score | Substance / form | Real price, 1 year | Versus 10-year average | Household debt | Real rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 9/14 | 6.48 | Substance without form | -1.9% | -5.9% | 50% of GDP | -0.8 pp |
| 2 | Poland | 8/14 | 6.48 | Substance confirmed | +3.3% | +15.2% | 23% of GDP | -0.2 pp |
| 3 | France | 8/14 | 5.42 | Substance being confirmed | -2.8% | -6.4% | 61% of GDP | -0.6 pp |
| 4 | Czechia | 7/14 | 6.08 | Substance confirmed | +6.4% | +18.1% | 31% of GDP | +1.3 pp |
| 5 | Romania | 7/14 | 5.82 | Substance being confirmed | +1.5% | -6.4% | 11% of GDP | -0.1 pp |
| 6 | Ireland | 6/14 | 5.42 | Substance being confirmed | +2.3% | +15.4% | 30% of GDP | -0.9 pp |
| 7 | Denmark | 5/14 | 6.22 | Substance confirmed | +7.6% | +13.4% | 85% of GDP | -0.1 pp |
| 8 | United States | 5/14 | 5.94 | Substance confirmed | -2.6% | +6.8% | 69% of GDP | +0.1 pp |
| 9 | Austria | 5/14 | 5.84 | Substance being confirmed | +0.1% | -4.5% | 44% of GDP | -1.1 pp |
| 10 | United Kingdom | 5/14 | 5.68 | Substance being confirmed | +0.1% | -4.7% | 76% of GDP | +0.3 pp |
| 11 | Australia | 5/14 | 5.54 | Substance confirmed | +4.2% | +11.7% | 112% of GDP | +0.7 pp |
| 12 | Spain | 5/14 | 5.48 | Substance being confirmed | +8.6% | +24.1% | 44% of GDP | -2.4 pp |
| 13 | Italy | 5/14 | 5.40 | Substance being confirmed | +1.0% | +0.2% | 36% of GDP | -1.7 pp |
| 14 | Sweden | 4/14 | 5.96 | Substance without form | +4.3% | -4.8% | 83% of GDP | +0.6 pp |
| 15 | Japan | 4/14 | 5.64 | Substance being confirmed | +2.4% | +7.2% | 65% of GDP | -0.8 pp |
| 16 | Netherlands | 4/14 | 5.56 | Substance being confirmed | +1.2% | +16.1% | 94% of GDP | -0.8 pp |
| 17 | Portugal | 3/14 | 5.42 | Substance being confirmed | +12.8% | +47.1% | 53% of GDP | -1.1 pp |
| 18 | New Zealand | 3/14 | 5.34 | Substance being confirmed | -4.6% | -9.0% | 90% of GDP | -1.0 pp |
| 19 | Canada | 3/14 | 5.06 | Substance being confirmed | -6.7% | -11.7% | 100% of GDP | -0.6 pp |
| 20 | China | 3/14 | 4.84 | Substance being confirmed | -7.0% | -18.0% | 61% of GDP | +2.1 pp |
| 21 | Hungary | 2/14 | 4.94 | Form without substance | +8.2% | +33.5% | 17% of GDP | +3.9 pp |
| 22 | United Arab Emirates | 2/14 | 4.10 | Form without substance | — | — | 25% of GDP | — |
Each country, condition by condition
Open a country to see the score on each condition, the data behind the computed scores and the rationale for the judgement scores. Conditions without data get 5 (neutral) in the score and do not count as met.
Germany · 9/14 · score 6.48 · Substance without form
After the 2022–2024 correction, new construction fell sharply, and the housing shortage in the large cities deepened. A predominantly rental market, with stable rules and many large cities. Weak economic growth limits demand.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 4 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth 1.3% in 2026, unemployment 4% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 8 | Disciplined new supply: no wave of empty flats. |
| C3 | Household debt | 6 | Moderate household debt. Data: household debt 49.9% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 5 | A few new demand drivers. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 7 | Bought mostly by people who live in the home. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 9 | Secure property and stable rules for loans and rents. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 6 | The cost of credit is acceptable. Data: rate 2.5% (2026-11-03) − inflation 3.3% = -0.8 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 9 | Many dynamic cities and regions. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 8 | Homes are missing: demand exceeds supply in the long run. |
| C10 | Valuation | 7 | Real prices are below their 10-year average. Data: real price -5.9% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 4 | Real house prices are falling. Data: real price -1.9% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few investors on the same bet. |
| C14 | Risk | 8 | Low risk. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
Poland · 8/14 · score 6.48 · Substance confirmed
An economy with solid growth, several dynamic large cities (Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Gdańsk, Poznań) and an acknowledged housing shortage. The 2023 subsidised credit pushed prices up; the pace has eased as interest rates fell. Investors buying to let hold a growing share in the large cities.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 6 | Moderate demand: ordinary growth and jobs. Data: growth 3.4% in 2026, unemployment 3.2% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 6 | Construction is close to needs. |
| C3 | Household debt | 8 | Low household debt: credit can grow soundly. Data: household debt 22.9% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 8 | Strong new demand: urbanisation, migration, investment, new factories. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 6 | Mixed demand: living and investment. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 7 | Secure property and stable rules for loans and rents. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 7 | A moderate real rate: credit is affordable but sound. Data: rate 3.75% (2026-11-03) − inflation 4.0% = -0.2 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 8 | Many dynamic cities and regions. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 7 | Homes are missing: demand exceeds supply in the long run. |
| C10 | Valuation | 2 | Real prices are far above their 10-year average. Data: real price +15.2% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 7 | Real house prices are rising. Data: real price +3.3% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Risk | 7 | Low risk. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
France · 8/14 · score 5.42 · Substance being confirmed
The market corrected after interest rates rose and is recovering slowly. Demand is geographically diversified, but the political and budgetary instability of recent years weighs on confidence.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 1 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth 0.4% in 2026, unemployment 8.4% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 7 | Disciplined new supply: no wave of empty flats. |
| C3 | Household debt | 5 | Moderate household debt. Data: household debt 60.5% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 5 | A few new demand drivers. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 7 | Bought mostly by people who live in the home. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 7 | Secure property and stable rules for loans and rents. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 7 | A moderate real rate: credit is affordable but sound. Data: rate 2.5% (2026-11-03) − inflation 3.1% = -0.6 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 7 | Many dynamic cities and regions. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 6 | A moderate housing shortage. |
| C10 | Valuation | 8 | Real prices are below their 10-year average. Data: real price -6.4% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 4 | Real house prices are falling. Data: real price -2.8% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few investors on the same bet. |
| C14 | Risk | 5 | A few risks to watch. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
Czechia · 7/14 · score 6.08 · Substance confirmed
Solid institutions and low political risk, but building permits are slow, and new supply stays below needs, especially in Prague. Homes are among the most expensive in Europe relative to income.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 4 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth 1.8% in 2026, unemployment 3% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 4 | Far more is built than needed, or unsold stock is large. |
| C3 | Household debt | 7 | Low household debt: credit can grow soundly. Data: household debt 30.8% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 6 | A few new demand drivers. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 7 | Bought mostly by people who live in the home. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 8 | Secure property and stable rules for loans and rents. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 9 | A moderate real rate: credit is affordable but sound. Data: rate 3.75% (2026-11-02) − inflation 2.5% = 1.3 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 5 | A few dynamic cities. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 7 | Homes are missing: demand exceeds supply in the long run. |
| C10 | Valuation | 1 | Real prices are far above their 10-year average. Data: real price +18.1% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 8 | Real house prices are rising. Data: real price +6.4% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Risk | 8 | Low risk. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
Romania · 7/14 · score 5.82 · Substance being confirmed
House prices rose 7.8% in nominal terms in the first quarter of 2026 (Eurostat), above the EU average; adjusted for inflation, which stayed high, the increase is much smaller. Premium developers report rising average prices. Home ownership is among the highest in Europe, and demand comes mostly from people who actually live in the flats, not from funds. The housing stock is old, and the large cities (Bucharest, Cluj, Iași, Brașov, Timișoara) attract people. The risks are fiscal: the large budget deficit brought tax increases and a still-high interest rate.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 1 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth -0.5% in 2026, unemployment 6.5% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 6 | Construction is close to needs. |
| C3 | Household debt | 9 | Low household debt: credit can grow soundly. Data: household debt 10.7% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 7 | Strong new demand: urbanisation, migration, investment, new factories. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 8 | Bought mostly by people who live in the home. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 6 | Acceptable institutions. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 7 | A moderate real rate: credit is affordable but sound. Data: rate 6.5% (2026-11-03) − inflation 6.6% = -0.1 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 6 | A few dynamic cities. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 7 | Homes are missing: demand exceeds supply in the long run. |
| C10 | Valuation | 8 | Real prices are below their 10-year average. Data: real price -6.4% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 6 | Real prices are stable. Data: real price +1.5% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few investors on the same bet. |
| C14 | Risk | 5 | A few risks to watch. |
Sources: Romania Insider: house prices +7.8% in Q1 2026 (Eurostat); Agerpres: apartment prices in 2026
Ireland · 6/14 · score 5.42 · Substance being confirmed
Deficit acut de locuințe, cerere puternică din partea angajaților multinaționalelor și imigrație ridicată. Prețurile au depășit vârful din 2007; oferta nouă rămâne mult sub nevoi.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 1 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth -1% in 2026, unemployment 5% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 3 | Far more is built than needed, or unsold stock is large. |
| C3 | Household debt | 8 | Low household debt: credit can grow soundly. Data: household debt 29.6% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 8 | Strong new demand: urbanisation, migration, investment, new factories. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 8 | Bought mostly by people who live in the home. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 7 | Secure property and stable rules for loans and rents. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 6 | The cost of credit is acceptable. Data: rate 2.5% (2026-11-03) − inflation 3.4% = -0.9 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 5 | A few dynamic cities. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 9 | Homes are missing: demand exceeds supply in the long run. |
| C10 | Valuation | 2 | Real prices are far above their 10-year average. Data: real price +15.4% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 6 | Real prices are stable. Data: real price +2.3% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Risk | 7 | Low risk. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
Denmark · 5/14 · score 6.22 · Substance confirmed
Sistem de credit ipotecar prin obligațiuni, unic și foarte stabil; prețurile cresc moderat, susținute de o economie puternică. Datoria brută a gospodăriilor este foarte mare, dar acoperită de active.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 6 | Moderate demand: ordinary growth and jobs. Data: growth 3.7% in 2026, unemployment 3% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 6 | Construction is close to needs. |
| C3 | Household debt | 3 | Households are already heavily indebted. Data: household debt 85.2% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 5 | A few new demand drivers. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 7 | Bought mostly by people who live in the home. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 9 | Secure property and stable rules for loans and rents. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 7 | A moderate real rate: credit is affordable but sound. Data: rate 2.1% (2026-11-02) − inflation 2.2% = -0.1 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 6 | A few dynamic cities. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 5 | A moderate housing shortage. |
| C10 | Valuation | 3 | Real prices are far above their 10-year average. Data: real price +13.4% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 9 | Real house prices are rising. Data: real price +7.6% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Risk | 8 | Low risk. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
United States · 5/14 · score 5.94 · Substance confirmed
A shortage of homes for sale: owners with old, cheap mortgages do not sell, and sales of existing homes are at multi-decade lows. Prices are close to record highs, and mortgage rates remain high compared with the last decade.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 5 | Moderate demand: ordinary growth and jobs. Data: growth 2.3% in 2026, unemployment 4.2% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 6 | Construction is close to needs. |
| C3 | Household debt | 4 | Households are already heavily indebted. Data: household debt 69.4% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 6 | A few new demand drivers. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 7 | Bought mostly by people who live in the home. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 8 | Secure property and stable rules for loans and rents. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 8 | A moderate real rate: credit is affordable but sound. Data: rate 3.875% (2026-11-03) − inflation 3.7% = 0.1 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 8 | Many dynamic cities and regions. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 7 | Homes are missing: demand exceeds supply in the long run. |
| C10 | Valuation | 4 | Real prices are far above their 10-year average. Data: real price +6.8% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 4 | Real house prices are falling. Data: real price -2.6% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Risk | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
Austria · 5/14 · score 5.84 · Substance being confirmed
Piață dominată de chirii și locuințe sociale (mai ales Viena), ceea ce temperează speculația. Regulile mai stricte de creditare din 2022 au răcit prețurile; acum se stabilizează.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 3 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth 0.6% in 2026, unemployment 5.7% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 6 | Construction is close to needs. |
| C3 | Household debt | 6 | Moderate household debt. Data: household debt 44.0% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 5 | A few new demand drivers. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 8 | Bought mostly by people who live in the home. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 8 | Secure property and stable rules for loans and rents. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 6 | The cost of credit is acceptable. Data: rate 2.5% (2026-11-03) − inflation 3.6% = -1.1 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 5 | A few dynamic cities. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 5 | A moderate housing shortage. |
| C10 | Valuation | 7 | Real prices are below their 10-year average. Data: real price -4.5% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 5 | Real prices are stable. Data: real price +0.1% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Risk | 8 | Low risk. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
United Kingdom · 5/14 · score 5.68 · Substance being confirmed
A chronic construction shortfall, with government targets for new homes hard to reach. Prices have stagnated in real terms since 2022; weak economic growth and property taxes for investors limit demand.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 3 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth 1.3% in 2026, unemployment 5.3% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 5 | Construction is close to needs. |
| C3 | Household debt | 4 | Households are already heavily indebted. Data: household debt 76.2% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 5 | A few new demand drivers. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 6 | Mixed demand: living and investment. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 8 | Secure property and stable rules for loans and rents. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 8 | A moderate real rate: credit is affordable but sound. Data: rate 3.75% (2026-11-02) − inflation 3.4% = 0.3 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 7 | Many dynamic cities and regions. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 7 | Homes are missing: demand exceeds supply in the long run. |
| C10 | Valuation | 7 | Real prices are below their 10-year average. Data: real price -4.7% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 5 | Real prices are stable. Data: real price +0.1% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Risk | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
Australia · 5/14 · score 5.54 · Substance confirmed
A housing shortage and strong immigration keep prices high, at very high levels relative to income. The state has expanded the 5% deposit scheme, which raises demand without raising supply.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 4 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth 1.9% in 2026, unemployment 4.4% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 4 | Far more is built than needed, or unsold stock is large. |
| C3 | Household debt | 1 | Households are already heavily indebted. Data: household debt 112.1% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 7 | Strong new demand: urbanisation, migration, investment, new factories. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 6 | Mixed demand: living and investment. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 8 | Secure property and stable rules for loans and rents. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 8 | A moderate real rate: credit is affordable but sound. Data: rate 4.6% (2026-10-29) − inflation 3.9% = 0.7 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 6 | A few dynamic cities. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 8 | Homes are missing: demand exceeds supply in the long run. |
| C10 | Valuation | 3 | Real prices are far above their 10-year average. Data: real price +11.7% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 7 | Real house prices are rising. Data: real price +4.2% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Risk | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
Spain · 5/14 · score 5.48 · Substance being confirmed
Economic growth above the euro-area average and strong immigration, with a shortage of new homes estimated in the hundreds of thousands. Foreign buyers and tourist lets compete with locals; the affordability crisis has become a major political issue, and the state intervenes more and more (rent caps, the end of the golden visa).
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 4 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth 2.5% in 2026, unemployment 9.8% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 7 | Disciplined new supply: no wave of empty flats. |
| C3 | Household debt | 6 | Moderate household debt. Data: household debt 43.7% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 8 | Strong new demand: urbanisation, migration, investment, new factories. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 6 | Mixed demand: living and investment. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 6 | Acceptable institutions. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 4 | Credit is either too expensive (slowing the market) or too cheap (inflating a bubble). Data: rate 2.5% (2026-11-03) − inflation 4.9% = -2.4 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 7 | Many dynamic cities and regions. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 8 | Homes are missing: demand exceeds supply in the long run. |
| C10 | Valuation | 0 | Real prices are far above their 10-year average. Data: real price +24.1% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 4 | Euphoria or panic in the press. |
| C12 | Price trend | 9 | Real house prices are rising. Data: real price +8.6% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 4 | Many foreign investors or funds in the same market. |
| C14 | Risk | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
Italy · 5/14 · score 5.40 · Substance being confirmed
Real prices are still below their levels of 15 years ago. The population is shrinking and ageing, and economic growth is modest; Milan and the tourist cities are the exceptions.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 3 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth 0.8% in 2026, unemployment 5.6% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 7 | Disciplined new supply: no wave of empty flats. |
| C3 | Household debt | 7 | Low household debt: credit can grow soundly. Data: household debt 36.1% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 4 | Few new drivers bringing buyers. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 7 | Bought mostly by people who live in the home. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 6 | Acceptable institutions. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 5 | The cost of credit is acceptable. Data: rate 2.5% (2026-11-03) − inflation 4.2% = -1.7 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 6 | A few dynamic cities. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 4 | Enough homes, or a surplus. |
| C10 | Valuation | 6 | Real prices are close to the average. Data: real price +0.2% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 7 | Balanced attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 5 | Real prices are stable. Data: real price +1.0% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few investors on the same bet. |
| C14 | Risk | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
Sweden · 4/14 · score 5.96 · Substance without form
Prețurile au corectat puternic în 2022-2023, iar acum se stabilizează odată cu scăderea dobânzilor. Datoria gospodăriilor este printre cele mai mari din Europa, iar construcțiile noi au scăzut mult, ceea ce poate readuce deficitul.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 4 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth 2.5% in 2026, unemployment 8.5% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 5 | Construction is close to needs. |
| C3 | Household debt | 3 | Households are already heavily indebted. Data: household debt 82.7% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 6 | A few new demand drivers. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 6 | Mixed demand: living and investment. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 9 | Secure property and stable rules for loans and rents. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 8 | A moderate real rate: credit is affordable but sound. Data: rate 1.75% (2026-11-03) − inflation 1.1% = 0.6 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 6 | A few dynamic cities. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 6 | A moderate housing shortage. |
| C10 | Valuation | 7 | Real prices are below their 10-year average. Data: real price -4.8% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 7 | Real house prices are rising. Data: real price +4.3% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Risk | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
Japan · 4/14 · score 5.64 · Substance being confirmed
Locuințele din Tokio și alte mari orașe se scumpesc, cu cerere din partea investitorilor străini atrași de yenul slab, în timp ce în restul țării populația în scădere ține prețurile jos. Banca Japoniei crește treptat dobânzile.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 3 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth 0.7% in 2026, unemployment 2.5% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 7 | Disciplined new supply: no wave of empty flats. |
| C3 | Household debt | 5 | Moderate household debt. Data: household debt 65.1% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 6 | A few new demand drivers. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 6 | Mixed demand: living and investment. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 8 | Secure property and stable rules for loans and rents. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 6 | The cost of credit is acceptable. Data: rate 1.25% (2026-11-03) − inflation 2.1% = -0.8 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 7 | Many dynamic cities and regions. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 4 | Enough homes, or a surplus. |
| C10 | Valuation | 4 | Real prices are far above their 10-year average. Data: real price +7.2% versus the 10-year average (2025-Q4) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 6 | Real prices are stable. Data: real price +2.4% over a year (2025-Q4) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Risk | 8 | Low risk. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
Netherlands · 4/14 · score 5.56 · Substance being confirmed
One of the largest housing shortages in Europe, officially acknowledged. The 2024 rent regulation reduced rental supply, and prices have resumed fast growth.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 4 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth 1.5% in 2026, unemployment 4% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 5 | Construction is close to needs. |
| C3 | Household debt | 2 | Households are already heavily indebted. Data: household debt 93.6% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 6 | A few new demand drivers. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 7 | Bought mostly by people who live in the home. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 8 | Secure property and stable rules for loans and rents. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 6 | The cost of credit is acceptable. Data: rate 2.5% (2026-11-03) − inflation 3.3% = -0.8 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 6 | A few dynamic cities. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 9 | Homes are missing: demand exceeds supply in the long run. |
| C10 | Valuation | 2 | Real prices are far above their 10-year average. Data: real price +16.1% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 6 | Real prices are stable. Data: real price +1.2% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Risk | 7 | Low risk. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
Portugal · 3/14 · score 5.42 · Substance being confirmed
Prices have risen fast for more than a decade, with strong foreign and tourist demand in Lisbon, Porto and the Algarve. New supply is small, and affordability for locals is among the weakest in the EU.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 4 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth 2.1% in 2026, unemployment 5.9% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 6 | Construction is close to needs. |
| C3 | Household debt | 6 | Moderate household debt. Data: household debt 53.3% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 7 | Strong new demand: urbanisation, migration, investment, new factories. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 5 | Mixed demand: living and investment. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 6 | Acceptable institutions. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 6 | The cost of credit is acceptable. Data: rate 2.5% (2026-11-03) − inflation 3.6% = -1.1 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 5 | A few dynamic cities. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 8 | Homes are missing: demand exceeds supply in the long run. |
| C10 | Valuation | 0 | Real prices are far above their 10-year average. Data: real price +47.1% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 4 | Euphoria or panic in the press. |
| C12 | Price trend | 10 | Real house prices are rising. Data: real price +12.8% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 4 | Many foreign investors or funds in the same market. |
| C14 | Risk | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
New Zealand · 3/14 · score 5.34 · Substance being confirmed
Prețurile au scăzut considerabil după vârful din 2021, iar interdicția pentru cumpărătorii străini și regulile fiscale au redus speculația. Economia slabă și emigrarea spre Australia apasă cererea.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 4 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth 2% in 2026, unemployment 5.4% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 6 | Construction is close to needs. |
| C3 | Household debt | 2 | Households are already heavily indebted. Data: household debt 90.3% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 4 | Few new drivers bringing buyers. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 6 | Mixed demand: living and investment. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 8 | Secure property and stable rules for loans and rents. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 6 | The cost of credit is acceptable. Data: rate 2.75% (2026-10-30) − inflation 3.7% = -1.0 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 5 | A few dynamic cities. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 5 | A moderate housing shortage. |
| C10 | Valuation | 8 | Real prices are below their 10-year average. Data: real price -9.0% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 6 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 3 | Real house prices are falling. Data: real price -4.6% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 7 | Few investors on the same bet. |
| C14 | Risk | 6 | A few risks to watch. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
Canada · 3/14 · score 5.06 · Substance being confirmed
One of the most expensive markets relative to income, with very indebted households. Immigration has been deliberately reduced, and new condos in Toronto and Vancouver are hard to sell; the ban on purchases by foreigners has been extended.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 3 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth 1.1% in 2026, unemployment 6.5% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 5 | Construction is close to needs. |
| C3 | Household debt | 2 | Households are already heavily indebted. Data: household debt 100.1% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 5 | A few new demand drivers. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 5 | Mixed demand: living and investment. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 8 | Secure property and stable rules for loans and rents. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 7 | A moderate real rate: credit is affordable but sound. Data: rate 2.5% (2026-11-02) − inflation 3.1% = -0.6 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 6 | A few dynamic cities. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 6 | A moderate housing shortage. |
| C10 | Valuation | 9 | Real prices are below their 10-year average. Data: real price -11.7% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 2 | Real house prices are falling. Data: real price -6.7% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 5 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Risk | 5 | A few risks to watch. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
China · 3/14 · score 4.84 · Substance being confirmed
New-home prices have been falling for more than three years, and stocks of unsold and unfinished flats are huge after the developers’ crisis. The population is shrinking, and buyers delay purchases while waiting for a price floor.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 7 | A growing economy with jobs: people can afford homes. Data: growth 4.5% in 2026, unemployment 5.1% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 3 | Far more is built than needed, or unsold stock is large. |
| C3 | Household debt | 5 | Moderate household debt. Data: household debt 61.4% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 3 | Few new drivers bringing buyers. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 4 | Much of the demand comes from investors betting on price. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 4 | Changing rules, insecure property or land registry. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 7 | A moderate real rate: credit is affordable but sound. Data: rate 3% (2026-11-03) − inflation 0.9% = 2.1 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 5 | A few dynamic cities. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 2 | Enough homes, or a surplus. |
| C10 | Valuation | 10 | Real prices are below their 10-year average. Data: real price -18.0% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 4 | Euphoria or panic in the press. |
| C12 | Price trend | 2 | Real house prices are falling. Data: real price -7.0% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Risk | 3 | High risk: credit bubble, political crises or sudden taxes. |
Hungary · 2/14 · score 4.94 · Form without substance
The 3% fixed-rate first-home loan programme (from September 2025) has boosted demand and prices. The market depends heavily on Budapest, and economic policies change often and follow the election cycle; inflation has been among the highest in the EU.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 4 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth 1.9% in 2026, unemployment 4.5% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 5 | Construction is close to needs. |
| C3 | Household debt | 9 | Low household debt: credit can grow soundly. Data: household debt 17.0% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 5 | A few new demand drivers. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 6 | Mixed demand: living and investment. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 4 | Changing rules, insecure property or land registry. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | 5 | The cost of credit is acceptable. Data: rate 5.5% (2026-10-28) − inflation 1.6% = 3.9 pp |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 4 | Demand is concentrated in a single city. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 5 | A moderate housing shortage. |
| C10 | Valuation | 0 | Real prices are far above their 10-year average. Data: real price +33.5% versus the 10-year average (2026-Q2) |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 5 | Moderate attention. |
| C12 | Price trend | 9 | Real house prices are rising. Data: real price +8.2% over a year (2026-Q2) |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 6 | Moderate positioning. |
| C14 | Risk | 4 | High risk: credit bubble, political crises or sudden taxes. |
Sources: BIS, residential property prices
United Arab Emirates · 2/14 · score 4.10 · Form without substance · no data: C7, C10, C12
The BIS does not yet publish a house price index for the United Arab Emirates, so three computed conditions are missing. Dubai grew exceptionally after 2021, but in the second quarter of 2026 prices fell 4% and rents 6% from the previous quarter, amid a wave of deliveries (more than 13,000 homes in Q2 and about 32,000 expected in the second half of the year). Demand comes largely from foreign investors, and the war in the region has raised the risk.
| # | Condition | Score | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | 0 | The economy grows little or unemployment is high: housing demand is weak. Data: growth -3.9% in 2026 |
| C2 | Supply discipline | 3 | Far more is built than needed, or unsold stock is large. |
| C3 | Household debt | 8 | Low household debt: credit can grow soundly. Data: household debt 24.8% of GDP (2024) |
| C4 | New demand drivers | 8 | Strong new demand: urbanisation, migration, investment, new factories. |
| C5 | Demand to live in | 4 | Much of the demand comes from investors betting on price. |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | 6 | Acceptable institutions. |
| C7 | Cost of credit | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C8 | Diversified demand | 4 | Demand is concentrated in a single city. |
| C9 | Housing shortage | 3 | Enough homes, or a surplus. |
| C10 | Valuation | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | 4 | Euphoria or panic in the press. |
| C12 | Price trend | — | Cannot be assessed yet (for example, the asset is not publicly traded). |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | 3 | Many foreign investors or funds in the same market. |
| C14 | Risk | 4 | High risk: credit bubble, political crises or sudden taxes. |
Sources: Khaleej Times (Cushman & Wakefield): prices and rents falling, August 2026
Formulas for the computed conditions
- C1: Real demand (IMF 2026): score = 2 + 1.2 × real GDP growth − 0.3 × unemployment above 5%.
- C3: Household debt (IMF, latest year available, % of GDP): score = 10 − debt / 12 (24% gives 8, 60% gives 5, 96% gives 2).
- C7: Cost of credit (BIS): real rate = policy rate − inflation; score = 9 − 1.5 × the distance from +1 pp (credit that is too expensive slows the market, credit that is too cheap inflates bubbles).
- C10: Valuation (BIS): real house prices versus their 10-year average; score = 6 − the deviation in % / 4 (20% above the average gives 1, 8% below gives 8).
- C12: Trend (BIS): annual change in real house prices, latest quarter; score = 5 + the change / 2.
The data behind the scores
What the data show
A paragraph computed automatically from the data above; it updates with them.
Germany meets the most conditions (9 of 14). Homes expensive compared with their own history (real prices more than 15% above the 10-year average): Poland, Czechia, Ireland, Spain, Netherlands, Portugal, Hungary. Real prices are lower than a year earlier in: Germany, France, United States, New Zealand, Canada, China. Romania ranks 5 of 22, with 7 conditions met: real price +1.5% over a year (2026-Q2), household debt 10.7% of GDP (2024).
A country’s housing market cannot be bought directly: we follow it as context for the economy, banks, developers and the currency. Rising prices are not enough: what matters is whether they are backed by income and a real housing shortage, or only by cheap credit and investors. This is not investment advice.
How we apply the 14 conditions in this domain
The same algorithm as for crypto, companies and commodities: each condition gets a score from 0 to 10 and is met from 7. The weights are identical in every domain; only what we measure in practice changes.
| # | Condition | What we measure | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Real demand | Economic growth and jobs: people can afford to buy or rent. | 16% |
| C2 | Supply discipline | New construction in line with needs, no wave of empty flats. | 6% |
| C3 | Household debt | Low household debt versus GDP: room for credit to grow soundly. | 6% |
| C4 | New demand drivers | Urbanisation, migration, foreign investment, new factories. | 8% |
| C5 | Demand to live in | Bought by people who live there, not only investors betting on price. | 6% |
| C6 | Rules and institutions | Secure property rights, land registry, stable rules for loans and rents. | 8% |
| C7 | Cost of credit | A moderate real interest rate: credit is affordable but does not inflate a bubble. | 8% |
| C8 | Diversified demand | Several dynamic cities and regions, not just the capital. | 4% |
| C9 | Housing shortage | Homes are missing, or existing ones are old and overcrowded. | 6% |
| C10 | Valuation | Real house prices versus their 10-year average. | 6% |
| C11 | Media (non-linear) | Balanced attention; euphoria marks the top. | 6% |
| C12 | Price trend | Annual change in real house prices. | 6% |
| C13 | Crowding (inverse) | Few foreign investors or funds betting on the same market. | 6% |
| C14 | Risk | No credit bubble, political crises or sudden property taxes. | 8% |
Questions about the reasoning
Do you disagree with a score, or want to know why an asset is where it is? Ask. We answer with the weekly update, with sources, by email and, if you agree, here on the page.
Answered questions
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Sources
- BIS, Selected residential property prices, Central bank policy rates and Consumer prices (retrieved on 2026-11-05)
- IMF, World Economic Outlook and Global Debt Database (DataMapper API) (retrieved on 2026-11-05)